WSJ: Trump is considering escalating Iran’s war: taking Kharg Island, bombing nuclear facilities, and expanding airstrikes all on the table

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has recently been intensely discussing the escalation of military action against Iran in the war room. Even though he still claims he hopes diplomacy can resolve the issue, Iran has yet to hand over its nuclear material stockpiles. If the stalemate further heats up, it could push the nearly 5-month conflict into its most dangerous phase.

(Background recap: Not just a blockade of Hormuz! Trump privately discusses a “larger-scale offensive,” and says next week he will target Iran’s power plants and bridges)

(Additional context: Trump acknowledges that Iran’s retaliation exceeded expectations, “hinting at hitting Hark Island again”; Europe refuses escort, and the Hormuz alliance has changed)

Table of contents

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• Why target Hark Island? It’s the jugular of Iran’s economy
• Three cards in the war room: taking the island, blowing up the mountains, and ground forces
• Calling for fighting while calling for talks: Trump’s two-track strategy

The U.S. military’s consecutive strikes against Iran this week have entered their 5th day. Both sides are engaged in a fierce tug-of-war for control of the Strait of Hormuz. As the fighting drags on, the Wall Street Journal on the 15th, citing leaks from U.S. officials, said Trump’s stance has clearly turned harder. He is no longer just putting diplomacy on his lips—he is laying out a full package of escalation plans on the table.

The Wall Street Journal warned that if Trump truly signs off, this near 5-month conflict will be pushed to the most perilous point since the outbreak of war, and it will also plunge the United States even deeper into a spreading Middle East chaos. The chain reaction is not hard to anticipate: a full-scale escalation of Middle East fighting would lift oil prices and inflation expectations in tandem. Global risk assets would inevitably come under pressure, and safe-haven sentiment would rise accordingly.

Why target Hark Island? It’s the jugular of Iran’s economy

Trump is aiming his sights at Hark Island and the Strait of Hormuz. Hark Island is Iran’s main oil export hub; nearly all of the country’s oil is loaded and exported from there. The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

In other words, if the U.S. military takes these two locations, it would effectively clamp down on Tehran’s financial lifeblood with one hand, while simultaneously flipping the world oil supply’s main switch with the other. This also explains why the U.S. military moved first to incapacitate tankers heading to Hark Island—what it is targeting is not only military objectives, but also Iran’s economic staying power.

Three cards in the war room: taking the island, blowing up the mountains, and ground forces

The Wall Street Journal described that late on the night of the 14th, Trump personally stayed in the war room, accompanied by hawkish aides including Vice President Vance, Defense Secretary Hessees, Secretary of State Rubio, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane, as they went over one by one the chips for stepping up pressure on Tehran.

The options on the table are all increasingly hardline: deploy ground forces to seize Hark Island and coastal strongholds along the Strait of Hormuz, bomb a tunnel complex in “the鎬山,” and even expand the airstrike radius to energy facilities inside Iran. Notably, “the鎬山” was singled out as especially sensitive. It is a site linked to Iran’s nuclear program that to date has not been touched by U.S. forces. Once action is taken, it would be tantamount to striking at the core of Iran’s covert nuclear activities.

Call for fighting, but call for talks: Trump’s two-track strategy

After weeks of repeated U.S. strikes, the two sides had at one point reached a preliminary peace agreement, but Iran dug in and refused to budge on its nuclear material stockpiles, refusing to accept Trump’s terms. With negotiations stalled, it forced him to turn back and have his aides produce new escalation scenarios—calculating how to force Iran to back down, or at least secure a promise of “not attacking cargo ships through the strait again.”

However, taking all of Trump’s harsh words at face value could also lead to a misjudgment. In the past, he has repeatedly tossed out heavy threats in a high-profile manner and then later quietly walked them back. From vowing to seize an island to taking over Iran’s oil industry, he has reversed himself. Several U.S. officials also admitted that he is not actually willing to send ground forces onto the battlefield. Read in this light, this round of loud posturing may itself also be a bargaining chip—an intimidation tactic to press Iran back to the negotiating table.

Trump has not yet finalized decisions for the next step, but for now, every option laid out on the war room table could be enough to reshape the direction of this war.