TL;DR
· A monthly roundtable survey of semiconductor investors shows that funds are more inclined toward TXN, memory, and AMD, and more cautious about equipment stocks and Intel.
· 70% of respondents believe TSMC’s performance influences the overall sector more than ASML, with the focus on 2026 revenue growth and capital expenditures.
· Optimism toward TXN and memory is stronger, but uncertainties remain around equipment stock orders, HBM rumor, and Intel foundry.

A monthly roundtable survey targeting semiconductor investors shows that the AI semiconductor boom has not cooled off yet, but capital preferences have clearly started to divert. TSMC, Texas Instruments (TXN), memory, and AMD have been placed in more positive positions, while semiconductor equipment stocks and Intel face more skepticism.

The timing of this survey is sensitive. According to TSMC’s official calendar, the company will hold its 2026 Q2 earnings call on July 16. Texas Instruments said it will hold its Q2 earnings conference call at 3:30 p.m. ET on July 22. AMD’s official calendar shows that its Advancing AI 2026 event is scheduled for July 22 to 23, and the flagship global AI event live stream mentioned in the April announcement will be held on July 23.

For short-term capital, it’s not a single line like “AI demand is strong” that matters, but whether a few companies can translate AI demand into revenue growth, capital expenditures, gross margin, customers, and orders.

The most direct disagreement in the survey is between TSMC and ASML. 70% of respondents believe TSMC’s performance will have a greater impact on the semiconductor sector overall, while 30% chose ASML. This result suggests that buyers are currently more concerned with how much wafer-fab outsourcing revenue and capital expenditures AI demand will ultimately translate into, rather than just looking at the lithography machine order perspective.

TSMC vs ASML influence vote: TSMC 70%, ASML 30%.

TSMC has become the first pressure test for semiconductors this week

TSMC is placed ahead of ASML because it connects two things at once: AI revenue growth and equipment stock order expectations.

The buy-side expectation in the survey is that TSMC may raise its 2026 sales growth guidance from above 30% previously to above 35%, and some respondents even bet on close to 40% year-over-year growth. AI sales’ five-year compound growth rate may also be upgraded; the market discussion range has been in the mid-to-high 50s.

These figures will directly shape investors’ judgment on the durability of AI semiconductor demand. If TSMC confirms higher growth, the market will find it easier to believe that demand for AI servers, advanced process nodes, and advanced packaging will continue. If the company merely maintains the prior guidance, it may be viewed in the short term as “not strong enough.”

More sensitive is capital expenditure. TSMC’s previously provided 2026 capital budget was $52B to $56B. What the market wants to hear now is whether management will further provide a clearer mid-term capex framework, though this remains buy-side expectations rather than a confirmed plan.

Equipment stock pressure also stems from this. Over the past two weeks, equipment stocks have pulled back, partly because investors worry that if TSMC does not send a sufficiently strong mid-term capex signal, the equipment stocks’ implied order expectations may need to be lowered.

ASML’s issue is not that there is no upside room. After the stock price lagged recently, valuation pressure has eased somewhat. But the buy-side threshold in the survey is already high: 2026 EUV lithography shipment expectations have been pushed to more than 100 units. For ASML, an earnings press release alone may not be enough; what matters more are the order, customers, and the 2026 cadence in the call and subsequent communications.

TXN is being bet on to drive analog semiconductors

In analog semiconductors, Texas Instruments is the clearer optimistic anchor.

The survey shows that 55% of respondents believe that if Texas Instruments’ results are positive, it will drive buying in other analog semiconductor stocks. 35% think the upside will be mainly limited to Texas Instruments itself. Only 10% said they will sell no matter the outcome.

Texas Instruments results spillover expectation: 55% think it will lift other analog stocks, 35% think it’s mainly limited to Texas Instruments, 10% lean toward selling.

What the buy-side is betting on is not just that revenue is a bit better in a single quarter, but that analog semiconductor demand, pricing, and gross margin could improve at the same time.

The market expectation in the survey is that the consensus for Texas Instruments’ third-quarter sales quarter-over-quarter growth is about 7%, above normal seasonality of 5%. Some buyers believe this number could be revised up to 9% to 10%. On gross margin, the market consensus is around 60.25%, Citi expects 60.5%, and optimistic investors are still waiting for upside beyond expectations.

The factors supporting this view mainly come down to three points: multi-round price increases gradually entering the financial statements, improved capacity utilization, and demand related to 800V technology entering a more favorable timing window. For analog semiconductors, if revenue recovers alongside gross margin improvement, earnings leverage would be more evident than a mere rebound in shipments.

The boundary is also clear. Whether Texas Instruments’ strong results spill over to the entire analog semiconductor industry depends on whether demand improvement is broad enough, not just whether the company’s own pricing, capacity, or product mix is better. Still, 35% of respondents believe the positive impact may be mainly for Texas Instruments, meaning the analog sector has not achieved consistent bullish sentiment.

Memory buy-side demand is more concentrated, but HBM rumors still create noise

Memory is another direction where optimism is concentrated.

The survey shows that 65% of respondents choose to buy the memory sector, 30% are optimistic but not adding to positions yet, and 5% think it has already topped out. This distribution indicates that memory has become a relatively crowded but still favored direction among buyers within semiconductors.

Memory investment sentiment: 65% buy, 30% optimistic but not adding to positions, 5% think it has topped out.

Optimistic expectations come from the possibility that demand could extend into the first half of 2027. Long-term agreements are also changing investors’ view of memory companies. If customers lock in supply through long-term agreements, memory manufacturers’ visibility into demand, capital expenditures, and free cash flow will improve, and shareholder returns are more likely to be incorporated into valuation.

The survey also mentions that some memory companies may have the possibility of repurchasing more than 20% of shares. This number matters for cyclical stocks because in the past, the market often priced memory at a discount with the idea that “the peak of the cycle will reverse.” If cash flows become more stable and buybacks become more explicit, the valuation logic may no longer be treated solely like traditional cyclical stocks.

But memory also faces controversy. Respondents slightly favor NAND and DRAM, with skepticism toward HBM “de-specification” rumors. One view is that this could just be a negotiation strategy between customers and suppliers and may not necessarily represent real demand deterioration. Another risk is that if high-end HBM specifications or pricing do not meet expectations, optimism toward memory could be hit.

AMD is easier to tell the 2026 story; Intel still needs to prove foundry

AMD’s AI event on July 22 to 23 is another focus amid the divergence in semiconductor capital.

The survey shows that 50% of respondents expect the event outcome to be bullish and plan to trade for long positions. 40% think the outcome will be positive but more neutral. 10% worry they will sell after disappointment.

The market wants AMD to provide several types of information: the expansion of the total addressable market for CPU and GPU, progress with new customers, higher average selling prices, a rebound in Xilinx’s high-margin business, and support from TSMC’s foundry in 2027. More directly, investors want to confirm that AMD is not merely a secondary “AI proxy,” but can form clearer revenue and profit leads in 2026 and 2027.

This also explains the change in the survey’s view of Intel. Buyers favor AMD more and are becoming cautious about Intel. The reason is not that Intel has no opportunities at all, but that the difficulty of the stories each company can tell is different: AMD’s 2026 earnings model is easier to build, while for Intel’s stock to rise significantly, the market would need higher confidence in its foundry success path.

Intel’s issue remains execution. For the foundry business to earn customer trust, it needs to prove process capability, yields, delivery, and economics at the same time. As long as this path is not clear enough, it is not surprising that capital continues to rotate toward AMD.

The tone behind this round of semiconductor divergence is clear: AI demand is still strong, but capital is no longer buying all semiconductor assets indiscriminately. TSMC needs to prove that growth and capex can still support the equipment chain; Texas Instruments needs to prove that price increases and utilization can lift analog stocks; memory needs to prove that long-term agreements and HBM demand are not just short-term sentiment; and AMD needs to turn the AI opportunity into customer, selling price, and earnings model traction.

The most likely trouble spots in the short term are still the segments where expectations have already been raised. If TSMC does not provide a sufficiently clear mid-term capex signal, equipment stocks may continue to face pressure. If HBM de-specification rumors are confirmed not to be merely negotiation noise, optimism in memory could cool down. If Intel cannot increase the market’s confidence in foundry success, the trend favoring AMD on the buy-side will likely continue.

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