Sharp drop followed by a weak rebound! The 4020 life-and-death line holds for now, but the rebound lacks strength and can’t break 4080!

On Thursday during the Asian session, gold rose to 4074.11 before stalling and falling back. It dipped to 4017.32, a key support level, then rebounded slightly and is currently trading around 4038. Overall, it’s showing a choppy downtrend pattern of “rally then fall back, weak rebound.” The bears dominate the market; the 4020-4010 area is the last line of defense for bulls in the short term. The 4000 psychological level is an important support—if it breaks, further downside space will open up.

Technical indicators: Bearish signals keep strengthening. The daily TRIX trend indicator remains in a dead cross state. Price continues to be under pressure below the 5/10-day moving averages, and the moving-average system is arranged bearish, meaning the medium-term downtrend is unchanged. On the four-hour chart, the MACD fast and slow lines are running at low levels below the 0 axis. The green momentum histogram has slightly shrunk, but there’s no clear sign of a reversal. The RSI oscillates in the neutral-to-weak area around 45, showing that rebound momentum is seriously insufficient. Price is moving within a descending channel; rebound highs are stepping down, forming a typical descending triangle consolidation pattern. Overhead selling pressure is heavier in the 4050-4060 area, and rebound upside is tightly capped.

Prudent layout: Short in the 4045-4065 range and also in the 4090-4110 range on the rebound. Targets are 4020-4000. If it breaks the 4000 integer level and is confirmed, you can follow through with a short; stop-loss at 4030, targets at 3980-3950. The market is currently in a weak consolidation phase after a deep pullback; the bearish-dominant structure hasn’t changed. The rebound is only a technical correction—so maintain a bearish mindset, strictly control position sizing, and wait patiently until the rebound proves weak again before setting up shorts.
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