Trump Unveils Large-Scale Strike Plan Against Iran; Rapid Tightening of Middle East Situation Could Weigh on Bitcoin’s Rebound

According to the latest market news, the fragile ceasefire previously reached between the U.S. and Iran had only lasted for several weeks before falling apart, with no decisive agreement ever being finalized on a permanent ceasefire, and there are signs that fighting is escalating in recent days.

After the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire held for several weeks, attacks broke out again last week. In addition, after Trump announced last week that the memorandum of understanding had expired, the two countries have since launched attacks against each other almost every day.

Entering Tuesday this week, Trump, together with key senior officials including Vice President JD Vance and Senator Marco Rubio, held a closed-door meeting in the Situation Room at the White House to discuss and determine whether to carry out a new large-scale strike strategy against Iran.

Reports say that the scope of subsequent actions is no longer limited to areas around the Strait of Hormuz. The plan is to upgrade the focus to Iran’s strategic targets on home soil, launching destructive airstrikes. Trump warned Iran that it “had better reach an agreement, otherwise it will lose almost all existing core facilities.”

It is worth noting that after Trump issued similarly tough threats in the past, the U.S.-Iran situation ultimately cooled significantly each time—this historical pattern also leaves room for easing in the current standoff.

This escalation in geopolitical risk coincides with the release of the U.S. June CPI data coming in below expectations, which has lowered the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Affected by this, BTC’s price surged quickly and reached a several-weeks high, topping out at $65,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In summary, according to past patterns, when the Middle East conflict escalates, it typically pushes up oil prices and drags on Bitcoin prices. If the U.S. advances a full-scale strike plan, Iran will most likely carry out retaliatory strikes against multiple countries in the region, and even the rebound in BTC that benefits from inflation faces the risk of giving back gains.

#地缘政治 #CPI data