Nomura Securities: May advanced packaging substrate shipments up 36% year-on-year to a new high; Rubin mass production and the HBM4 technology roadmap are the focus

Deep Tide TechFlow updates, according to Tide Research, on July 14, 2026, Nomura Securities released a research report citing data from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. In May, Japan’s packaging substrate shipment value reached 27.8 billion yen, up 36% year-over-year and hitting a historical high; the shipment area per square meter increased 10%, while the average price rose 23% to 1.356 million yen. The report said that demand for NVIDIA Rubin packaging will ramp up this summer (no later than August), but the more noteworthy variable is that Rubin Ultra may shift from a four-die structure to a dual-module structure, as well as the integration challenges for large intermediate layers brought by HBM4 wiring upgrades. Intel unveiled EMIB-T technology at ECTC, and expects to complete mass-production preparations in 2026. It can integrate up to 12 HBM4 units without an intermediate-layer solution, with supply voltage drop improving 68-80% versus EMIB; TSMC maintains its lead thanks to its 3DFabric Alliance and advantages in power delivery and heat dissipation.

Nomura Securities believes that the core battleground of the next-generation packaging competition lies in power delivery, thermal management, CPO, and 3D hybrid bonding, and that the packaging substrate industry’s excess returns will come from customers’ ability to bind to specific technical roadmaps.