BTC is now at 64.7k u. It has clawed back fast nearly $7,000 from the late-June low of 58k u.

That short trade at 63.5k u was break-even when it came out. Looking back now, it was the right exit—holding it hard all the way to today would have meant losing money.

The reason for this rally is very solid. Last week, the inflation data came in lower than expected. The market started betting on rate cuts, and money flowed back in—this isn’t just pure emotion.

But there’s one ugly thing: June’s ETF net outflows were $4.4 billion. That was the worst month since it launched. Institutions have been steadily pulling out, and even with the rise these past two days, they haven’t come back.

So now it’s a very contradictory situation: the price is going up, but the big money hasn’t moved in—it's being propped up mainly by expectations.

At the start of this year, it was still at 93k u. Last October, the peak went up to 126k u. Now it’s at 64.7k u—down by nearly half. This isn’t a minor pullback; the trend has turned bad.

65k u is the hardest hurdle of this move. Only if it gets above that level do you have the right to talk about going higher.

If 62k u breaks, then the earlier bounce would have been a wasted rebound.

The Fed meeting at the end of the month is the biggest variable this month. Once it reaches the position I mentioned, I’ll call it out in the community—just follow along.#BTC $BTC