On July 14, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The data showed that the U.S. CPI in June fell 0.4% month over month, marking the first monthly contraction since May 2020; the year-over-year increase dropped sharply from 4.2% in May to 3.5%, below the market expectation of 3.8%. Core CPI was flat month over month, and rose 2.6% year over year, also coming in below expectations.

This data triggered a rapid and broad chain reaction across financial markets. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.91% that day, and NVIDIA shares jumped 4.06%. Bitcoin rebounded strongly from a 24-hour low of $62,314, climbing as high as $65,100 and setting a near two-week high. Market expectations for the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in July fell sharply from 41.7% before the data release to 15.5%.

The significance of this CPI report goes far beyond “inflation falling” itself. It forms a complete logic chain for the market: easing inflation pressure → narrowing room for the Fed to raise rates → U.S. Treasury yields moving lower → valuation recovery in risk assets. By breaking down this transmission mechanism, we analyze the benefiting logic for tech stocks and crypto assets in this round of rebound, and assess the policy outlook under Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s “zero tolerance” stance.

Why did the U.S. CPI become a market turning-point signal? June CPI