Citrini: Predicts that the global DRAM memory market could enter a long-term tight supply-and-demand cycle, with the 2030 DRAM shortage reaching 28.7EB.

Deep Tide TechFlow news: On July 16, market research firm Citrini Research released its latest forecast. By 2030, the global DRAM market will still face a large-scale supply shortfall, with the size expected to reach 28.7EB—about 18% of total demand that year—compared with this year’s global total production capacity of about 40EB. Based on data shared by Citrini researcher Zephyr, global DRAM (including HBM) demand in 2030 is expected to be 157.5EB, while supply capacity is only about 128.8EB. Among them, standard DRAM will be the biggest bottleneck: expected supply is about 91EB per year, while demand is as high as 120EB, with the gap ratio widening from the current 18% to around 25%.

The report emphasizes that even if Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers continue to expand capacity, the added capacity may still be quickly absorbed by rapidly soaring AI demand. The core reason for the imbalance between supply and demand is the explosive growth of AI infrastructure: large-model training and inference, and HBM, have become key AI accelerators, which in turn boosts demand for traditional server DRAM. Under tight equilibrium, DRAM average selling price (ASP) may remain at elevated levels for the long term, expected to be in the range of $1.5–2 per Gb. Memory costs for servers, PCs, and consumer electronics will continue to face pressure. (Jinshi)