Citrini: Forecasts that the global DRAM shortage will reach 28.7EB in 2030; the memory market may enter a long-term tight supply-and-demand cycle

BlockBeats message, July 16, market research firm Citrini Research’s latest forecast: by 2030, the global DRAM market will still face a large-scale supply shortfall, with the scale expected to reach 28.7EB, about 18% of total demand that year, compared with this year’s global total capacity of about 40EB.

Based on data shared by Citrini researcher Zephyr, global DRAM (including HBM) demand is expected to reach 157.5EB by 2030, while supply capacity will be only about 128.8EB; among them, standard DRAM will be the biggest bottleneck. Estimated supply is about 91EB per year, but demand is as high as 120EB, and the shortfall ratio is expected to expand from the current 18% to around 25%.

The report emphasizes that even if Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China-based manufacturers continue expanding production, the new capacity may still be quickly absorbed by surging AI demand. The core reason behind the supply-demand imbalance is the explosive growth of AI infrastructure: for large-model training and inference, HBM becomes a key AI accelerator, which in turn drives up demand for traditional server DRAM. In a tight balance, DRAM average selling price (ASP) may stay at a high level for the long term, expected to land at $1.5-2 per Gb. Memory costs for servers, PCs, and consumer electronics will continue to face pressure.