A Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌
I. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Primary trend (1-hour timeframe): Since the May 6 historical high of 82,814, the major downtrend saw an important reversal on July 1. The price fell from 82,814 through a June 1 secondary high of 73,975 and a June 15 rebound high of 67,254, continuing down to the July 1 low of 57,721, for a cumulative decline of 25,093. After bottoming out on July 1, the bulls launched a strong counterattack: on July 6 the rebound reached 64,597 (top of Wave A), on July 8 it pulled back to 61,470 (bottom of Wave B), and on July 10 it rebounded again to 64,660 (top of Wave C). After Wave C ended, the price fell to the July 13 low of 61,750, but a V-shaped reversal appeared on July 14: the price surged from 61,750 to 65,020, breaking above the July 10 high of 64,660 in one move. On July 15, it pushed higher again to 65,510 (a new high since July), then pulled back to 64,723 at the close. The primary trend may be transitioning from a deep decline to a rebound phase after bottom-building.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since July 13 at 61,750, the short-term uptrend has been extremely strong. The short-term swing lows moved up from 61,750 (7-13 18:15) to 62,191 (7-14 00:00) → 62,240 (7-14 03:00) → 62,427 (7-14 07:00) → 63,160 (7-14 12:30) → 64,443 (7-14 15:30) → 64,479 (7-14 22:00) → 64,500 (7-15 07:45), showing the strong characteristic of “lows continuing to rise.” The short-term swing highs broke from 64,660 (7-10) to 65,020 (7-14) → 65,510 (7-15 13:15), setting a new high since July. During the July 15 late-session pullback, it fell from 65,510 to 64,723, a retracement of about 787, which is a normal consolidation after a breakout.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend may be undergoing a turn, and the consecutive volume-expanding breakouts on July 14–15 are the key signal. The short-term trend has entered a strong upswing phase. 64,000–64,500 is the core near-term support, and 65,000–65,500 is the key near-term resistance. If it can hold above 65,000 and break 65,500, it opens upside room of 66,500–67,500; if it loses 64,000, the rebound may end and price could return to a corrective range of 63,000–62,000.
II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:

Bottom fractal: On July 13 at 18:15, a strong bottom fractal formed at 61,750, followed by a sustained rebound. Multiple bottom fractals on July 14 kept moving higher, indicating strong bull absorption.

Top fractal: On July 14 at 22:15, a top fractal formed at 65,020, but the subsequent pullback was limited (the low was 64,738). On July 15 at 13:15, a new top fractal formed at 65,510; it then pulled back to 64,723 by the close, a retracement of 787.
Bi (strokes) and segments:

From the bottom fractal at 61,750 to the top fractal at 65,020 (July 14), it formed an upward Bi with a rise of about 3,270, showing extremely strong momentum.

From the top fractal at 65,020 to the top fractal at 65,510 (July 15), it formed another upward Bi with a rise of about 490, showing weaker momentum and indicating sell pressure above 65,000.

From the top fractal at 65,510 to the bottom fractal at 64,723 (late July 15), it formed a downward Bi with a drop of about 787, showing medium force and fitting the normal pullback after a breakout.
Central (overlapping) regions:

The prior downward central area 62,000–63,500 has been fully broken upward and has become strong support below.

A new rising central area is being built in the 64,000–65,000 range; the July 15 candles are densely interlaced within this range. The current price of 64,723 is near the upper edge inside this central area and reflects a strong consolidation posture.

A new overhead pressure central area is forming in the 65,000–65,500 range.
Chan conclusion: The upward Bi has extremely strong force (+3,270) and the downward Bi has medium force (-787), showing bulls remain dominant but sell pressure is visible above 65,000. The market is currently in the phase of building a new rising central area. For the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal support can form around 64,000–64,500; if it forms, the upward Bi may restart and target 65,500. If it directly breaks below 64,000, the rebound may end, with targets at 63,000–62,500.
III. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the 1-hour swing structure, the走势 since the May 6 high of 82,814 is re-labeled as follows:
Higher-degree five-wave decline (completed):

Wave 1: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), move of about -4,300

Wave 2: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), move of about +2,551

Wave 3: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), move of about -21,956 (main impulse down)

Wave 4: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), move of about +8,152

Wave 5: 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1), move of about -9,526
ABC rebound correction (has evolved into a more complex structure):

Wave A: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), move +6,876

Wave B: 64,597 → 61,470 (July 8), move -3,127

Wave C: 61,470 → 64,660 (July 10), move +3,190 (Wave C ends)

X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,750 (July 13), move -2,910
A new round of upswing (under development):

Wave 1 (new): 61,750 → 65,020 (July 14), move +3,270, with strong momentum

Wave 2 pullback: 65,020 → 64,738 (late July 14), move -282, an extremely shallow retracement

Wave 3 extension: 64,738 → 65,510 (July 15), move +772, with weaker momentum

Wave 4 pullback (current): 65,510 → 64,723 (late July 15), move -787
Wave conclusion: The market may currently be in Wave 4 pullback of the new upswing cycle. Wave 1’s rise of 3,270 is strong, Wave 2’s retracement is extremely shallow (282), and Wave 3’s momentum is relatively weak (772), indicating significant resistance above 65,000. If Wave 4 completes in 64,000–64,500 and then Wave 5 starts, targets are 66,000–67,000. If it breaks below 64,000, the 1–5 wave structure may fail and the market may revert to a correction phase.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: The July 1 crash phase showed extremely clear expansion in trading volume. During the July 1–10 rebound phase, volume expanded moderately. During the July 10–13 pullback, volume contracted, indicating limited sell pressure. On July 14, a massive breakout occurred: during the 12:00 session, volume reached a 195 million-level figure; price surged from 62,777 to 63,888. In the 15:00 session, another 185 million-level volume appeared; price pushed up from 64,244 to 64,878. On July 15 at 12:30, a 486 million-level “top volume” appeared; price rose from 64,664 to 64,876. After that, continuous volume expansion from 13:00 to 13:30 drove price up to 65,510. During the late-session pullback on July 15, volume shrank, showing limited sell pressure. Overall it presents a positive volume-price combination of “pullback on shrinking volume + breakout on expanding volume + consolidation on shrinking volume.”
Key volume-price nodes:

July 13 at 18:15: a low-volume selloff halt (volume only 155 million) formed a phase bottom at 61,750.

July 14 at 12:00: a volume-expanding bullish candle (volume 195 million-level); it surged from 62,784 to 63,888, with a body of about +1,104, confirming the start of a bull-led counterattack.

July 14 at 15:00: a volume-expanding bullish candle (volume 185 million-level); it surged from 64,244 to 64,878, confirming the breakout is valid.

July 15 at 12:30: a top-volume bullish candle (volume 486 million-level); it rose from 64,664 to 64,876, confirming the start of Wave 3.

July 15 at 13:15: a volume-expanding spike and pullback (volume 183 million-level); after pushing from 65,200 up to 65,510, it fell back, showing sell pressure concentration above 65,500.
Recent volume-price status: From late July 15 into the close, volume noticeably declined; price consolidated narrowly in the 64,600–64,900 range, which is normal digestion after the breakout.
Volume-price conclusion: After the volume-expanding breakouts on July 14–15, volume-price coordination was good. Key observation points: if the market retraces to 64,000–64,500 and selling pressure shrinks while price stops falling, Wave 5 may start; if it breaks down below 64,000 with volume expanding, the rebound may be over.
V. Order Flow
Trade volume distribution (Volume Profile): In the last 5 days (July 11–15), the volume control point (POC) is at 64,036. The current price of 64,723 is about 687 above the POC, showing a premium state (Above Value).
Position analysis: Price 64,723 is above POC 64,036, meaning it is in the value-area premium above. The Value Area is 62,211–64,761; the current price has already broken above the upper edge of the Value Area (64,761), indicating the short-term buyer side is in control. However, the deviation above the Value Area upper edge is not large, which falls within a reasonable premium range.
High volume nodes (HVN):

65,000–65,500: Overhead resistance HVN (a dense成交区 on July 15; currently strong resistance)

64,000–64,500: Core support HVN (dense成交区 on July 14–15; currently strong support)

62,000–63,000: Downside support HVN (dense成交区 on July 13; has turned into support)

59,000–60,000: Extreme support HVN (dense成交区 on July 1)
Delta analysis: During the July 14 surge, Delta turned sharply positive (+6 billion-level), confirming主动买盘 dominance. During the July 15 push to 65,510, Delta only turned slightly negative (-1.5 billion-level), confirming sell orders were flowing out actively above 65,000. Current Delta MA12 has fallen from a high level back to around the zero axis (+6.88T), showing buyer strength has weakened somewhat but remains dominant.
Order flow conclusion: Price is above POC 64,036, so short-term buyers are in control. Overhead 65,000 and 65,500 are two key HVN resistance levels; below 64,000 and 64,500 are two key HVN supports. If within 64,000–64,500 Delta keeps turning positive and selling pressure shrinks while price stops falling, Wave 5 may start; if Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 64,000, the rebound ends.
VI. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:

Strong resistance: 82,814 (phase high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 65,510 (July 15 high)

Key resistance: 66,000 (psychological level), 65,500 (late July 15 spike-and-retrace area), 65,000 (psychological level)

Key support: 64,500 (lower edge of the July 15 consolidation area), 64,000 (bull-bear dividing line), 63,500 (July 14 breakout area), 62,500 (July 13 consolidation area), 61,750 (July 13 low), 57,721 (July 1 low)
Candlestick patterns:

At 18:15 on July 13, a candle with a long lower wick appeared, forming a “hammer” bottom pattern at 61,750.

At 12:00 on July 14, a big bullish candle (body about +1,104) surged from 62,784 to 63,888, forming a “breakout bullish” pattern.

At 22:15 on July 14, a bullish candle with a long upper wick appeared (body about +512, upper wick about 203); after pushing from 64,508 to 65,020 it fell back to 64,882, forming a “shooting star” pattern, indicating initial sell pressure above 65,000.

At 13:15 on July 15, a candle with a long upper wick appeared (upper wick about 300); after pushing from 65,200 to 65,510 it fell back to 65,200, forming a “evening star” bearish pattern, indicating concentrated sell pressure above 65,500.
Trend structure:

Short term: The rising channel since July 13 at 61,750 is being formed; the lower-band support is around 63,500, and the upper-band resistance is around 65,500.

Mid term: The downtrend line since the May 6 high of 82,814 has been broken, and price has moved above this trend line.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, price is in Wave 4 pullback of the new upswing cycle. 64,000–64,500 is the defense line for bulls; 65,000–65,500 is the bull-bear dividing zone. A breakout opens 66,500–67,500 upside space; if 64,000 is lost, the market will likely retest the 63,500–62,500 range.
Comprehensive judgment
Dow theory suggests signals that the primary trend may be turning, and the continuous volume-expanding breakouts on July 14–15 are the key turning point. Chan theory shows the upward Bi has extremely strong force (+3,270) but the latest downward Bi has medium force (-787), with sell pressure visible above 65,000. Elliott Wave theory may place the market in Wave 4 pullback of a new upswing cycle. The volume-price relationship shows a positive combination of “pullback on shrinking volume + breakout on expanding volume + consolidation on shrinking volume.” Order flow shows POC at 64,036 with the price in a premium state; Delta MA12 has fallen back to around the zero axis. Price action shows a “evening star” pattern with concentrated sell pressure above 65,500.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price near 64,000–64,500 shows low-volume stopping of the selloff + bottom fractal support + Delta turning positive, you can consider going long; targets 65,000 → 65,500 → 66,500; stop loss 63,500.

Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 65,000–65,200 and a top fractal appears with volume-expanding selloff, confirming 65,500 resistance is effective, you can short; targets 64,000 → 63,500; stop loss 65,700.

Current state: 64,723 is in the consolidation area after the Wave 4 pullback. Bulls still have the edge short term, but momentum is weakening. It is suggested to wait for the pullback to 64,000–64,500 to confirm support before going long, or wait for a breakout above 65,500 to confirm the start of Wave 5 and then chase. #btc