NYDIG: Bitcoin driven by leverage rather than spot demand, with value and momentum buyers still on the sidelines

Deep Tide TechFlow message: On July 16, according to a NYDIG research report (author: Greg Cipolaro, July 10, 2026), Bitcoin fell 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, and the year-to-date decline widened to 32.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 27.7% and tech stocks gained 43.5% over the same period—indicating that this downturn was not caused by broad macro risk avoidance, but by Bitcoin-specific supply pressure.

The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) rolling out its “digital credit capital framework,” authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover capital-structure obligations. This marks the largest historical marginal buyer shifting from continuous accumulation to active realization, and the DAT compound as a whole moving from a demand engine to a supply-risk driver.

On the ETF front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $4.9 billion in Q2, but Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust bucked the trend with $364.8 million in inflows, showing that distribution channels remain competitive. In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, funding rates are rising alongside an uptick in open interest, indicating that leveraged long positions are rebuilding; this creates the risk that passively triggered liquidations could prompt another round of declines.

Bitcoin’s current price is down 54.3% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6, 2025. If we refer to the 2018 and 2022 cycles (a gradually narrowing drawdown of about 70% and a duration of about 370 days), the cycle low could appear in early October in the $38,000 to $39,000 range. The Senate review window for the CLARITY Act from July 13 to August 7 is this year’s last realistic opportunity. The moral controversy arising from Trump’s more than $1.4 billion in crypto income, as well as the banking industry’s continued opposition to stablecoin yield provisions, remain the main obstacles to the bill’s passage.