Wu Shuo learned that NYDIG’s report says the drawdown structure for Bitcoin from 2025 to 2026 is once again getting close to the four-year cycle adjustments seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the price action repeats past bear markets, this year’s BTC low could land near $38k to $39k. NYDIG noted that BTC is currently down nearly 50% from its historical peak of about $126k in October 2025, and its performance this year has lagged behind assets such as U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc.

BTC-1.20%
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Permit2Detective
· 7h ago
The old four-year cycle theory is being brought up again, but this time there are ETFs and institutional support backing it up; if it really falls that deep, I actually think the opportunity outweighs the risk.
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HodlWaveRider
· 7h ago
History won’t simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Still, the fundamentals between 2025 and 2018 are basically too different.
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OrdinalInker
· 7h ago
NYDIG’s prediction is brutal—38,000? Then I’d better get ready to add to my position, too.
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CashCow
· 7h ago
38k is the limit stress-test level. If it really gets there, I’ll go all-in; if it doesn’t, then consider it psychological massage.
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NightContract
· 7h ago
Bear markets may resemble previous patterns, but the liquidity environment is completely different now—don’t cling to old methods like someone carving a boat to find the lost sword.
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PixelWhale
· 7h ago
The Swiss franc has outperformed BTC—if you said this three years ago, who would believe it?
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