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Wu said he learned from a NYDIG report that the drawdown structure for Bitcoin from 2025 to 2026 is once again moving closer to the four-year cycle adjustments seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the price action repeats past bear markets, this year’s BTC low could fall near $38k to $39k. NYDIG noted that BTC has dropped nearly 50% from its October 2025 historical high of about $126k, and that its performance this year has lagged behind assets such as U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc.