July 16

Gold morning
Key factors analysis

1. U.S. inflation data keeps weakening, but the Fed’s tone is hawkish, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears
In the evening of yesterday, the U.S. June PPI month-on-month fell 0.3%, far below market expectations. Combined with the cooling CPI from the previous day, the market significantly reduced the probability of the Fed’s next rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields once fell, and gold surged to test the 4,080 level.
However, the newly appointed Fed Chair Waller clearly stated in a hearing that he is not satisfied with the current inflation indicators. He said inflation turning points cannot be judged solely based on a single month’s price pullback, and he retains the option to continue with rate hikes. This speech restrained the downside room for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, directly capping gold’s upside. After gold surged, it quickly pulled back, slipping into a range-bound consolidation.
This rebound in gold is only an oversold rebound/repair. As long as the Fed keeps the broad policy base of high interest rates unchanged, zero-yield gold is unlikely to break out of a sustained long-term bullish trend.

2. Middle East geopolitical tensions create a two-way contradiction
The standoff between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again. The U.S. took actions including a maritime blockade and airstrikes, pushing up oil prices accordingly.
Theoretically, geopolitical safe-haven demand should be bullish for gold, but the market’s current trading logic is: oil prices rise → energy inflation picks up again → the Fed is forced to maintain a tightening policy. The bearish weight from interest rates outweighs gold’s safe-haven buying demand. Geopolitical conflict cannot drive gold to rise in one direction; it can only intensify back-and-forth oscillations.

Technical analysis
Daily: Price rebounded after receiving support at the prior low of 3,980. It surged yesterday and touched the moving-average pressure band at 4,095–4,100, then fell back, closing with a bullish candle with an upper shadow. The 20-day moving average forms a clear medium-term suppression. Although the MACD formed a golden cross, the added red histogram lacks strength. RSI is in a neutral range.
On the daily long-term cycle, the market is still in a repair phase after a decline. Without holding above 4,100, the larger bearish structure has not been fully reversed.
Strategy: 4,070–4,095—box, defend at 4,108, target 4,030–4,000

Disclaimer: Investing is risky; enter the market with caution