This World Cup betting record:

1. In the group stage, I bet 2000U on France, Spain, Argentina, and England to win the championship. Back then I figured the odds of these four teams not winning the title shouldn’t be that high, with odds around 1.8. By the time it reached the semifinals, it was basically locked in. I actually think this one was relatively solid. In essence, I benefited from what happens early on—weak teams can end up exceeding their real win probability, because a lot of “degenerate bettors” get delusional about playing small for big, or each team has its own fan base.
2. I thought Argentina had barely made it through two tough rounds in a row, so the whole team must have awakened. Then they played Switzerland so easily. So I bet 700U on Argentina to win, but the regular time ended in a draw—700U was wiped out.
3. Then it was France vs Spain. The pseudo-fans who only come around every four years had France hyped up as how strong, how strong they were—straight-up wiping out the title odds of the other teams, leaving just 1000U on France. I figured France’s offense was so strong that once they got past Spain, it would be basically secured. Result: Spain basically put them through military training—1000U was zeroed.
4. At this point, the money from the win was basically taken away by 23, and I felt a bit disheartened. Even though I knew England had a bigger chance to win, I bought 500U on Argentina to win, thinking I’d just see it through with the “Ball King” to the end. Losing is losing. I didn’t expect England’s head coach to have a totally unusual way of thinking. Against a team like Argentina—clearly strong on offense and weak on defense, and also unbelievably resilient in the knockout stage—once they scored a goal they started parking the bus. Argentina then bombarded them with shots for more than 30 minutes, and they won.
(PS: Argentina’s offense was really being underestimated. How does it feel like the opponent turns into a god every time? )
To sum it up: with this gambling stuff, the more you think it’s “safe”—the kind of thing you treat like a financial-management plan—the easier it is to have a major crash. It’s just like poker: small hands don’t lose you that much, and big losses only happen when you get the good cards.
In the end: Messi is incredible. In the final, Argentina beating Spain was also incredible. If Argentina had played France and it really was that hard, then it wouldn’t be as meaningful. And if Argentina had knocked through the whole way, stumbling along the way, and still ended up defending the title—that storyline would be even more amazing. Even if Argentina didn’t win the trophy in the end, it doesn’t affect Messi’s status as the all-time #1 “ball king.” But if they really did defend the title, then for the new “ball kings” afterward, catching up would be genuinely too difficult.
I can witness Messi’s career, including the peak Barcelona dream team era (maybe not just that—could be the peak). You could say this is the biggest luck for me, a fake football fan.