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“Doomsday Doctor” Roubini warns: Inflation is still the biggest market risk; US Treasury yields may rise to a 30-year high

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Golden Finance reported that on July 15, Nouriel Roubini, the famed economist known for being pessimistic and nicknamed the “Doctor Doom,” warned that inflation remains the biggest risk facing the market. The key factors driving inflation higher include geopolitical tensions, deglobalization, and increased government spending. Roubini warned that if the inflation trend continues to rise, long-term bond yields could see sharp changes. He said that if the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaches 5%-6%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could be “close” to 8%. This would be the highest level since 1994, rising significantly from the current level of about 4.58%. He said that beyond market factors, other structural factors could also push yields higher. For example, continuously increasing government debt means the Treasury needs to issue more bonds. If demand does not grow in parallel, the increase in bond supply will drive yields higher.
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