#BTC反弹触及65000美元 CPI “joker” positive news was extinguished with a bucket of cold water from the Federal Reserve—where do we go from here?

For the first time in six years, the US CPI turned negative on a month-on-month basis. -0.4%. Expectations were only -0.1%, but the actual result delivered a drop four times larger. On a year-on-year basis: 3.5%, prior value 4.2%, forecast 3.8%. Core CPI year-on-year came in at 2.6%, forecast 2.8%. Core CPI month-on-month was 0%—the smallest increase since January 2021. Put this data in any normal year, and it would be enough to make the market celebrate for three days and three nights.
But the reality is—the celebration only lasted a few hours. Bitcoin broke above $65,000 intraday, up more than 4%. Gold surged by more than $50 in the short term. US Treasury yields moved lower, and stock index futures strengthened.
So what’s next?
The Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, testified before Congress that day, and directly splashed cold water on it.
Governor Waller went even harder—if inflation still shows no progress for a long time, they should consider raising rates.
One piece of data is positive, but two hawkish remarks. The market stalled between the numbers and the statements.
Why? What is the Fed afraid of?
Because the June CPI pullback was propped up by one thing—an oil price crash. In June, the energy index fell 5.7% month-on-month, and gasoline prices plunged 9.7%. So why did oil prices fall?
The ceasefire between Iran and the US held, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened. But the ceasefire has already broken down. On July 8, the ceasefire broke. A US airstrike, an Iranian blocking statement, and Brent crude surged back up from $70 per barrel to $86. The June CPI reflects a world that no longer exists.
The July CPI will be published in August—and that data will very likely be a completely different story.
So what is the Fed doing? Managing expectations.
They don’t want the market to loosen financial conditions too early because of “a fake CPI caused by a plunge in oil prices.”
Waller repeatedly reaffirmed the long-term inflation target and refused to adjust policy signals based on one month’s data. Waller said they need to see several more months of good data before changing their stance.
In plain terms: don’t get too happy—I’m not buying it.
So where do we go from here? Two paths—completely different outcomes.
Path A (bad news): The Hormuz situation pushes up oil prices → July CPI rebounds → rate-hike expectations shift forward again → the window for risk assets to recover closes, and BTC may retrace to June’s lows.
Path B (good news): Inflation continues to fall → rate-hike expectations fall apart → BTC could be set to enter the second major up-leg of the year.
July CPI, published in August—this one month is the market’s “Schrödinger moment.”
So what should you do now?
First, don’t chase the rally. The Federal Reserve could “blast it down” with rhetoric at any time—Waller and Waller have already shown they can do it.
Second, every pullback is a chance to accumulate in batches for spot, but the prerequisite is that you can withstand volatility.
Third, watch oil prices. It’s the leading indicator for the July CPI, and also the trigger for the Fed’s next move.
CPI is yesterday’s story—oil prices are tomorrow’s script.
June’s CPI gave you a window, but how long that window stays open doesn’t depend on the data itself—it depends on that ship through the Strait of Hormuz.
Do you think July CPI will rebound? Are you adding now, or staying on the sidelines?