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DRAM ETF fell from $81 to $57, a drop of 19.3% over five days.
Officially entering a technical bear market.
But if you only look at the Korean stock market, you wouldn’t think anything is wrong at all.
Yesterday SK hynix surged +9% with a deep V-shaped rebound in Seoul, and Samsung +6%, looking like a “bad news is now cleared” scenario.
Koreans are bargain-hunting; Americans are running away. Same industry, two markets, completely opposite directions.
So why is the US stock market still falling?
Three variables—none of which you can see in the Korean market.
First, the CXMT memory IPO.
China’s fourth-largest DRAM maker, raising $8.5 billion on the STAR Market, implying a valuation of 85.5 billion. This figure is far above market expectations. It implies that traditional DRAM capacity expansion will be faster than everyone thinks. Micron is down 5.4% today, mainly because of this.
Second, the arbitrage positions in SK hynix’s ADR.
hynix listed on Nasdaq raising $26.5 billion. It rose 13% last Friday and 28% on Tuesday. Then it fell 10% today. That’s a textbook example of good news being cashed in. The rebound in Korea is supported by dip-buying capital, while the decline in the US is arbitrage capital running.
Same company, two markets, but completely opposite signals.
Third, doubts about AI hardware ROI are moving from the margins into the mainstream.
Meta said AI compute power may be temporarily idle in stages, and Michael Burry bought Micron put options at the peak.
The main contradiction isn’t that demand is gone—it’s that the speed of supply growth is outpacing the market’s expectations for demand growth. Wait until late July when each company’s earnings reports come out, then look at management’s guidance on DRAM prices for the second half before making a decision.
$DRAM $MU $SKHY