The biggest mistake right now may be assuming BTC has already started a new major downtrend.

Bitcoin could be in a B-wave rebound after the A-wave decline, but whether 58,000 was the final low of Wave A is still unconfirmed.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC has recently formed a Higher High and Higher Low and is now attempting to break above the descending trendline.

That gives the short-term structure a bullish bias.

Until price shows a false breakout, forms a Lower High, or breaks below the latest Higher Low, I do not see a high-quality reason to short.

The first key level is 68,000.

If BTC breaks above it on the 4-hour chart and successfully holds the level on a retest, the rebound could extend toward:

• 70,000
• 74,360

A clean break above 74,360 would increase the probability of a move toward the 78,000–82,000 zone.

That upper area could become a potential B-wave completion zone and a future location to watch for Wave C.

But this is only a scenario—not a prediction.

I would need to see actual evidence of weakness first:

• Bullish momentum fading
• A failed breakout
• A Lower High
• A break below the latest Higher Low

If BTC continues breaking resistance while maintaining its HH/HL structure, the bearish wave count must be reassessed.

Wave analysis should help prepare scenarios.

It should never be used to force the market into a predetermined outcome.

Would you treat this move as a B-wave rebound or the beginning of a larger bullish reversal?

#Bitcoin #ElliottWave #PriceAction