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Here is a summary of five main positive factors driving the surge in Bitcoin, along with our strategy. Please see the document; the plan is provided at the end:
I. Five Catalysts Behind This Surge
1. Weakening CPI and PPI in the US, cooling expectations for rate hikes, which favors risk assets.
2. Implementation of new crypto regulations in the US, reducing transaction tax rates, paving the way for spot BTC ETFs.
3. Rising US stocks and increasing market risk appetite, pushing the crypto market up at the same time.
4. Spot Bitcoin ETF ends a long period of outflows, with net inflows exceeding $200 million in two days, indicating institutional investment.
5. Several positive factors converge: short covering and bargain-hunting funds flow in, driving the price to rise continuously.
II. Market Outlook
Short Term (1-3 days)
Most of the positive factors have already been reflected in the price. Strong sell pressure at the resistance level of 65700 suggests the potential for a pullback after the rally.
A breakout above 65700 on the daily chart is considered valid; a breakdown below this level is likely to cause a drop toward the support level of 63500-63800.
ETF short-term capital inflows are not persistent; chasing the rally is not recommended.
Medium Term (1-3 months)
The overall uptrend remains unchanged, but price movements will be volatile.
Ideal rhythm: a rebound to test 74000 followed by a decline; if no new lower low forms, the bottom has already been formed.
The September Fed meeting and the Warsh hearing are key variables; aggressive comments could trigger a deep correction.
Trading Strategy
1. Short term: Watch and wait for a pullback to the support level before entering.
2. Keep the price above 65700 before considering further upside potential.
3. Medium term: Expect volatility; avoid one-sided trading and manage risk strictly.
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