July 15 BTC/ETH Market Evening Report丨After Good News Is Realized, Can the Market Continue to Rise in a Single Direction?

《Jiangfeng Trading Journal》第 4 Episode: It’s always about betting once at the key levels—there can’t be 100% certainty in the market!

During the day, driven by favorable CPI and PPI data, the price surged to around the 65,500 area. Meanwhile, Ethereum broke above 1,900 and came near 1,946, so our shorts around 65,400～66,000～67,000 during the day, as well as shorts at 1,910～1,937～1,970, are definitely also entries! It’s just that we may currently be slightly underwater on them, but I think the market has now fully priced in the expectation that the July interest rate will remain unchanged—most likely it will surge higher and then pull back.

First, my viewpoint for today: keep the high-side short positions unchanged. For Bitcoin, watch the 66,000～66,800 area to continue shorting; 68,000 is the limit of this rebound. For Ethereum, watch the 1,970～1,990 area above to continue shorting; 2,037 is the limit of this rebound—but remember to participate with light positions! For intraday shorts, just hold them and don’t move.

From the market’s fundamentals:

The short-term “good news” has already been priced in: July rate hikes are basically unlikely, but after yesterday’s CPI, the market has already fully traded this expectation. Right now, the price holding above 65k precisely reflects that the bullish momentum is spent.

The medium-term focus should be: according to the CME FedWatch, the combined probability of a September rate hike is 50.9%. From now until September, there are two more inflation and employment data releases—any rebound will run into a ceiling before the September decision. I think this is also the moment when it’s possible to trade the September rate-hike expectations! Of course, this is only my personal judgment of the market at the moment, and there is room for error! But I still firmly believe that any rebound is an opportunity to short at higher levels!

There’s not much to talk about on the chart—this is just the current price extension, and the candlesticks show it. Today’s daily rebound is being suppressed near the EMA55 average line around 65,500. On the lower timeframes, the attached indicators have all flashed overbought signals. With the current price, I can’t convince myself to blindly chase higher, so I’m staying with the high-side short approach!

BTC: treat the rebound as a short opportunity—remember to participate with light positions; risk index 🌟🌟🌟☆☆

Short near 66,000～66,800～68,000; targets to watch: 65k～64,500～63,800～62,000～60,000

ETH: short near 1,970～1,990～2,040 on the rebound; targets to watch: 1,900～1,860～1,830～1,750～1,700

Remember to control position sizing—participate with light positions. In this critical period, remember: don’t go all-in!！

#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #预测世界杯阿根廷VS英格兰 #BTC反弹触及65000美元 $BTC $GT ‌$ETH ‌$BTC ‌