#夏日创作营 The rebound is only a “one-day trip”: gold surges to above $4,100, then suddenly plunges! Could the central bank be forced to sell gold to stabilize the exchange rate?

Global spot gold prices fell on Wednesday (July 15). In the prior trading day, gold prices rose by more than 2%. Crude oil prices kept climbing, raising inflation worries and increasing uncertainty around the outlook for U.S. interest rates—putting pressure on non-yielding gold. As of the time of writing, spot gold was down 0.7%, to $4,025.12.

Yesterday, gold briefly climbed to $4,100.49, rebounding from a two-week low. Earlier data showed that U.S. consumer inflation’s decline in June was larger than market expectations. Investors are weighing two opposing forces: on the one hand, U.S. inflation data came in below expectations; on the other hand, energy prices rising in connection with the Iran war are again re-boosting inflation risk.
Cooling CPI weighs on Fed rate-hike expectations
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the overall CPI in June fell 0.4% month over month, the largest single-month decline since April 2020, and also weaker than the market’s expected fall of 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was flat month over month in June, below the market’s expected rise of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, both overall CPI and core CPI slowed to 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively—again below market expectations.
These figures prompted traders to cut expectations for further Fed rate hikes and pushed the dollar to near four-week lows. However, the market’s initial reaction faded quickly.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress that the central bank would not tolerate inflation staying high for the long term, while also stressing that the U.S. economy remains resilient.
Senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said: “I think the market is now starting to downplay the impact of the CPI data, because in essence it is a lagging indicator. Trump is still maintaining a blockade on ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher, which also weighs on gold.” Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to stimulate inflation on Wednesday, with oil prices rising for the third consecutive trading day. U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated a maritime blockade on all Iranian ports and threatened that if Tehran does not resume negotiations, the U.S. may strike Iran’s power generation facilities and bridges next week.
A Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group analyst said: “Lower gasoline prices helped ease inflation pressure, leading investors to reduce bets on further tightening of monetary policy and pushing gold prices to rebound.” However, they also noted: “Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are heating up again, and rising oil prices still pose an upside risk to inflation.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated again that if price pressures persist, further tightening policy remains an option.”

Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but in a high interest-rate environment, its appeal often declines.
The market is waiting for more data and for additional senior Fed officials to welcome the cooling of June’s inflation readings, but it also notes that more similar data is needed to be confident that price pressures are truly easing. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released later that day, and is expected to provide more clues about the inflation outlook and the path of monetary policy.
At the same time, the latest developments in the Middle East crisis will remain a key focus for the market and may continue to intensify volatility in financial markets, creating short-term trading opportunities for gold.
Based on data from CME FedWatch, traders currently expect the probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting to be about 58%, down from 76% before the CPI was released; meanwhile, the market still expects the probability of a rate hike in December to be about 80%.
In a report, Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said that overall yields have risen, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. She noted that the $4,000 support level for gold still appears solid, but the market “does not have much confidence that further pressure on financial markets will drive large inflows into precious metals.” She also said that as oil prices begin to rise, some central banks may be forced to sell part of their gold reserves to stabilize their domestic currency—limiting gold’s ability to play its traditional safe-haven role.
However, she added that any pullback should be viewed as a chance to build positions by long-term investors.

Gold shorts may test $4,000 again
From the daily chart, gold is still trading within a descending parallel channel and is clearly below the 200-day simple moving average, meaning that even if a rebound occurs recently, the overall trend remains constrained.
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has turned positive and continues to rise, showing that upward momentum has improved somewhat, but overall it is still limited. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 40.80, in a neutral-to-weak zone. Therefore, the $4,140.69 near the upper band of the descending channel may still be the first major resistance level within the current structure. Only by breaking through this level consistently can the current bearish bias be eased.
On the downside, the next key support level is the $3,718.03 area near the lower band of the descending channel. If gold prices show a clear rebound in this region, it may indicate that sellers are losing control of the short-term trend $XAUUSD ‌