In the US-Iran conflict from February 28 to June 17, 2026, US stocks proved to be the strongest risk hedge, while precious metals collapsed. The S&P 500 rose 9% versus pre-war levels and the Nasdaq surged by about 14%, reaching new highs. In contrast, gold fell 17% by the end of the war and widened its losses to 22% by mid-July when fighting broke out again, while silver dropped 37% over the same period. Bitcoin, after rising to a daily high of $82,791 in May, reversed course and ended the war down by about 2%, suggesting behavior like a risk asset rather than a safe haven. Oil was the only traditional risk hedge that tracked the conflict as expected: up 63% to $118 by the end of March before reversing when peace was established.

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