Tonight’s PPI data is also good, about the same as the CPI figures—both are significantly below expectations. The month-over-month rates have turned negative, suggesting the impact from oil is starting to fade. And the core PPI data is also below expectations, so the core PCE numbers should be fine.

Yesterday, Trump also did TACO; now we just need to see whether geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran cause more oil-price problems. If oil prices fall back below $80, inflation will very likely continue to decline.

Plainly speaking: as long as Trump and Iran don’t stir things up, it’s hard to say what the chances are for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, but a rate hike is probably not possible. #BTC反弹触及65000美元 $BTC ‌