Measuring Micron ADR’s lofty premium against TSMC as the benchmark: even with a converged position of $32.40 million, both sides are still funneling money to subsidize funding fees in both directions.

BlockBeats message: On July 15, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, on Hyperliquid, U.S.-listed Hynix (SKHY) is at $181.58, while South Korea-listed Hynix (SKHX) is at $1,358.50. Based on the conversion that 0.1 share of SKHY ADS corresponds to 0.1 shares of the South Korea-listed ordinary stock, the current on-chain ADR premium is about 33.7%.

Over the past 24 hours, the trading volume of SKHY and SKHX has been approximately $450 million and $1.213 billion, respectively, and the open interest has been approximately $121 million and $425 million, respectively. Combined, the two underlyings have total trading volume of about $1.663 billion, and total open interest of about $546 million.

As a reference, taking TSMC ADR at $420.39, Taiwan stock ordinary shares at NT$2,440, the USD to TWD exchange rate at about 32.16, and 1 ADR corresponding to 5 ordinary shares, TSMC’s current ADR premium is about 10.8%, while Hynix’s current premium is about 3.1 times.

Historically, during the dot-com bubble period, TSMC’s ADR premium rose from around 70% to nearly 90%; in June 2000, when it issued additional ADS, the issuance premium disclosed by the official was still as high as 43% (according to SEC filing documents). Compared with that, Hynix’s current 33.7% premium is about 78% of the additional issuance basis used by TSMC that year, but only 40% to 50% of the bubble extreme.

Historically, during the dot-com bubble period, TSMC’s ADR premium rose from around 70% to nearly 90%; when TSMC issued additional ADS in June 2000, the issuance premium officially disclosed by TSMC was still as high as 43%. Compared with that, Hynix’s current 33.7% premium has already reached about 78% of TSMC’s additional issuance basis from that year, but it is still only 40% to 50% of the bubble extreme.

Large funds have formed two opposing combinations around this price spread. For the bet on convergence (long SKHX, short SKHY), five addresses hold a combined position of about $32.40 million, with a combined unrealized loss of about $1.117 million; for the bet on expansion (long SKHY, short SKHX), only one address holds about $9.719 million, with an unrealized gain of about $127,000. The top positions are as follows:

Convergence direction:

Address starting with 0xf517: bilateral notional about $11.181 million, unrealized loss about $601,000, SKHY vs. SKHX quantity ratio about 15.9:1;

Address starting with 0x2577: bilateral notional about $8.008 million, unrealized loss about $285,000, quantity ratio about 17.7:1.

Expansion direction:

Address starting with 0x434f: 4x leverage short SKHX and 8x leverage long SKHY; bilateral notional about $9.71 million, unrealized gain about $127,000; quantity ratio about 3.6:1, keeping a net long exposure to Hynix.

Funding rates also lean toward the expansion side: SKHX’s hourly funding rate is about +0.00773%, while SKHY’s is about −0.00264%. In the convergence spread, both sides must pay funding; based on the current positions, these top five addresses together are estimated to pay about $1,453 per hour. In the expansion spread, both sides can receive funding, about $588 per hour. The convergence trade is undergoing a “double drain” of “unrealized loss + paying on both sides.”