On April 13, I pressured SNDK, and the roaring storage bull market was launched from then on.

On May 21, a post was published analyzing the next core hotspot in the storage sector: HBM. It clearly stated that MU is the core leader in this sub-sector. After the short-term pullback ends, the next wave of upside would far exceed that of traditional storage stocks, and that MU’s subsequent gains could reach 90%+.

Starting June 25, multiple reminders were issued that the storage sector was overheated—so one should cut positions or fully exit, not chase longs.

So far, during this storage run, all actions basically matched the market’s timing. Then how should we look at what comes next?

Taking SanDisk as an example, as shown in the chart, the storage sector has two outlooks:

Blue: The June 22 high forms a cyclical high. The correction for the entire rally from 28.36-2385 has already begun. If it continues along this path, the correction will be extremely long—so long that most retail investors trapped at high levels will feel hopeless;

Red: 2385-1485 is a pullback against the rally from 517-2385. After that, there will be another leg of upside on the same level as 517-2385.

If we want it to follow the red route, we must see SanDisk break through and hold above 2025 this month; otherwise, the probability of following the blue route will be far higher than the red route.

It’s especially important to note that even if it follows the red path, after completing the final upswing, a cyclical pullback will most likely begin afterward too—and this pullback is at the monthly-chart level.

I’m not bearish on SanDisk, and I’m not bearish on storage. Instead, I believe that from a risk-reward odds perspective, this sector is no longer suitable for ordinary investors to keep participating.

A gentleman doesn’t stand under a dangerous wall. The most comfortable, most certain, and highest-odds stage of this storage cycle has already passed. Smart friends are already positioning for the next hotspot rather than taking a risk to eat the very last bite.

No one understands storage better than me—maybe that’s a bit arrogant—but just like I could precisely short silver at the 121 top, the market will ultimately remember the judgments that were truly validated. #闪迪 $MU ‌