How much of an absolute impact does Changxin Memory have on the market?

Since the topic about Changxin Storage started getting hot from last winter, the first half of this year has been all talk about going public. Changxin Storage has been increasingly deepening its impact on the market, from a single stock, $Hefei Chengjian (sz002208)$ , to later $GigaDevice (sh603986)$ , and then to Changxin Storage’s strong influence over the entire technology-chip sector all the way up to today. Its influence has grown bigger and bigger. At this point, its impact on the STAR Market and even the entire broader market is already pivotal. The key question is what its pricing is.

Until last night, in most people’s estimates, the scale was basically in the tens of trillions: the low end is 2.5 trillion, the high end 3.5 trillion, and some even said 5.5 trillion—almost like they were planning to price Changxin Storage all the way to the horizon [Taoguba]

     Last night, the final pricing finally came out: more than 500 billion. This is good—turns out they priced it lower again. Changxin Technology’s STAR Market IPO has confirmed the issue price at 8.66 yuan per share. Online and offline subscriptions will begin on July 16. The estimated listing market value is about 25k yuan. The final strategic allocation is 35k shares, with a total subscription amount of about 55k yuan; industrial-category institutions uniformly received 18.24 million shares, corresponding to 158 million yuan per company. With pricing like this—ten times earnings multiple, giving institutions such a price—if institutions are truly paying attention, then if they compare with storage-chip stocks in the market trading at dozens to hundreds of times earnings multiple, or even other technology stocks, they would be the ones to lose. Because Changxin Storage’s pricing this time is low enough, and it’s a large enough quantity—more than enough to go around. It was originally one of the biggest market-cap targets. Now with a price like this, you don’t need to worry about a 2007 PetroChina-type incident for now. But there is something else you need to worry about: the “blood-letting” effect on the market caused by it not having listed yet. Today’s blood-letting almost drained the STAR Market; it drained storage chips, drained packaging and testing, and even drained the all-star trending list on Eastmoney. That Eastmoney trending list became a “slaughter lineup”—whoever goes up is the unlucky one.  


       Almost all active capital in the market has been drained by Changxin Storage’s IPO this time. And the underwriter lineup is practically elite: every brokerage wants to get a piece of it. Today, brokerages are rising; insurers are also rising. And then you see banks too—national-level long-term capital / insurance capital (the “state team” stabilizing funds).  

1. The Second National Development Fund for Structural Adjustment of State-Owned Enterprises (the China State-Owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund, Phase Two)

2. National Social Security Fund (dozens of investment portfolios such as 101, 109, 401, 413, 502, 601, 2106, etc.)

3. Basic pension insurance funds (multiple pension accounts such as 904, 1205, 808, 2108, etc.)

4. China Life Insurance

5. PICC Property and Casualty Insurance

6. China Post Life Insurance

7. Taikang Life Insurance
   Just say—how are these institutions? This only mentions part of them. Other institutions are numerous beyond count, applying like crazy. If you include the capital that already came in with financing earlier, it’s even more massive. Just from Alibaba’s investment this time alone, it could provide Alibaba with another chance to win in these life-and-death business battles over dominance.

       All the institutions mentioned above are only a tiny fraction of the countless institutions. Capital from everywhere is rushing in there. So the question is: if you throw all this capital aside, how much market momentum is left? Because many funds need to lock up for three to five years. If the pricing were at a 100x earnings multiple, that would be disastrous. The underwriter is locked up for 24 months, and executives are locked up for 36 months. You have to know that back then, PetroChina for an entire year couldn’t be seen at all. Even with their 10x earnings multiple, they could still sleep soundly and comfortably. That means if yesterday’s pricing for Changxin Storage had been higher, it would still affect the market. But once it’s low to this extent, it would drive the entire market into madness. In everyone’s eyes, it would basically just be those four characters: Changxin Storage. Everything else would become invisible. Because across the whole market—also across the whole world—there are no storage-chip stocks priced at a 10x earnings multiple. Even among technology stocks, none is a 10x earnings multiple target. That’s why today’s South Korean stock market is almost soaring crazy, while the STAR Market on this side is almost dropping crazy.
   

This feeling is even more obvious. In other words, the current variable is basically just one thing: Changxin Storage. Without its presence, the whole market would likely continue yesterday’s rebound trend. Almost the entire market has been hijacked by Changxin Storage, because the pricing there is at a 10x earnings multiple. So tell me: among all technology stocks, which one has such a low multiple?

       Changxin Storage’s hijacking of the entire market will likely continue until tomorrow, maybe things improve here. The tech stocks here have been smashed, but the pharmaceuticals sector—supposedly—has something to do with the outbreak of a pandemic. However, the official side has never confirmed it, so for now we still treat the pharmaceuticals sector as just like a “seesaw” relative to tech stocks. At the close, the safety level doesn’t really look that great. It’s true that tech stocks are the absolute main line of the market—this cannot be wrong. But the pharmaceuticals sector also has its advantage: when tech stocks pull back, it can get a round of “old-timer stock spring” type gains. Today, many old-timer stocks almost have some hope, but going forward it will still ferment within tech stocks. Today at the open, $DeMingLi (sz![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-78d229a614-73f6c363af-8b7abd-7649e1))$ hit a one-word limit down. DeMingLi disclosed a mid-year earnings performance forecast: the company expects revenue in the first half of 2026 to be 16.0 billion to 18.0 billion yuan, up 289.39% to 338.06% year over year. It expects attributable net profit in the first half to be 5.7 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, versus a loss of 118 million yuan in the same period last year. Based on DeMingLi’s earlier disclosure of Q1 attributable net profit of 1.67B yuan, the company’s Q2 attributable net profit is expected to be 14.44B to 3.35B yuan, a sequential decline of 5.74% to 29.65%. Basically, Baituilong is the same story; today’s pullback is simply inhuman. The plain truth is that they stocked up on goods themselves. But since the market is lively, they plan to keep the inventory warehoused, and sell later at an even higher price. Of course, if it weren’t for this reason, then it would only mean the company leadership’s brains are bad. If they weren’t bad, then it should be like this. So this isn’t a big problem here. The only problem is one thing: Changxin Storage’s pricing is too low, making their own valuations look too high. That’s why these three storage “giants” look super not worth it. DeMingLi is like this; B&W Storage and JiangboLong also have to suffer. Extending this out also makes packaging and testing a headache; other tech stocks all have issues too. Actually, it’s all because the capital got drained. Why is the pharmaceuticals sector fine? Because it’s not the same batch of capital. Do what it should do—just do it.  


      That’s enough for today. Hurry up and like, comment, and tip. Thank @天空飞的地板@杨远程@股木天@阿凡提嘚吧嘚@排队来一手@开心糯米 for the tips and for pushing the broadcast—thank you