24 hours: “guardian angel” turns into “highway robber,” then back again

—Trump’s move treats the market like it’s a monkey.

Yesterday, Trump said he was the “guardian angel” of the Strait of Hormuz.
The angel has a posted price: a 20% toll.

A tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil for a single trip pays over $30 million. Iran’s highest previous fee was only $2 million per ship. The United States asks for ten times that.

The whole world blew up. Brazil’s president immediately lashed out: “piracy.” The International Maritime Organization says it’s illegal. Shipping companies say it’s no different from highway robbery.

What about oil prices? On the day, they surged 9.6%. In 24 hours, the number of merchant ships transiting dropped from 57 to 3. Wall Street’s “NACHO trade” was fully restarted—betting that Hormuz would never be reopened.

And then, in less than 24 hours, Trump made a 170-degree turn.

No more charging. Instead, Gulf states can come invest in the United States—on an extremely huge scale.

In this world, the only thing that can overturn Trump is Trump from the next day.

But you think this is the end?

The fees were canceled, while the blockade expanded. Hormuz opened to all ships—except Iran. On Monday, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on targets along Iran’s coastline, and Iran retaliated by firing missiles at two UAE oil tankers, resulting in 1 death and 8 injuries.

The “protection money” is gone, but the war is still being fought.

What does Trump’s style of decision-making mean for the market?

It means uncertainty becomes the norm.

A superpower’s Middle East policy can flip-flop back and forth within 24 hours. Yesterday it was 20%—today it’s saying it’s not charging anymore. What about tomorrow? Nobody knows. What the market fears most isn’t bad news—it’s news that keeps changing.

On Tuesday, oil prices spiked by about 4% at one point. After Trump posted his tweets, the gains were quickly given back. Brent crude went from surging 9.6% on Monday to closing up 1.7% on Tuesday—what a roller coaster ride, where long and short positions get harvested together.

With oil bouncing around at high levels, inflation expectations swinging repeatedly, the blade of interest rate hikes stays suspended.

And Bitcoin? On Monday, as oil prices surged and rate-hike expectations warmed up, Bitcoin was pushed straight down to around $62,000.

You think Hormuz has nothing to do with you? For every 10% rise in oil, Bitcoin gets slapped again.

Trump turned geopolitics into a reality show, but the market’s money is real and being burned.

One reversal every 24 hours—retail traders blow up a position one time after another. After a few more times, who can withstand it?

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