7.15 ETH Analysis

ETH’s rebound this round is a plunge-deviation correction impulse driven by macro expectations. In the short term, the upside push shows clear signs of marginal exhaustion, and it has not formed a trend-level incremental breakout. On the four-hour level, indicators have entered a high-position momentum-dulling range; stochastic indicators are moving toward extreme overbought levels, and the long side’s extension momentum has completely fractured.

Coupled with the Fed’s hawkish remarks in the evening that suppress expectations for easing, ETH—an asset with high volatility—first shows a premium retracement behavior in funding rates. The market forms a deceptive, upswing-inducing structure. Above, a key overhead pressure zone forms a rigid rail-like band, adding damping; the rebound lacks continuity. Overall, the rhythm is typical of a distribution of positioning after favorable news has already been acted upon: the weight at higher levels gradually shifts downward, and next will enter a phase of pullbacks and corrections step by step, with the short-side structure remaining dominant.

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