I just glanced at Jin10: an Iranian official said the latest round of US airstrikes has already hit, with more than 260 people injured. Back in the day, the US would’ve been panicking long ago.

But look at the chart now—BTC/USDT perpetual futures, current price at $64,750, up 4.02% over the past 24 hours. Last night’s CPI data was a shocker: inflation year-on-year came in at 3.5%, below expectations of 3.8%. Rate-cut expectations directly reignited market risk appetite. BTC was violently lifted from the 62,000 range, and short-term bears got wiped out. Across the whole market, $810 million was liquidated in 24 hours—short positions made up the bulk again, another classic squeeze/short-covering drama.

To be honest, after mixing in crypto for 9 years, I’ve already figured it out: BTC’s pricing power has long stopped being in the hands of geopolitics—it’s in the hands of USD liquidity. When the news about the US military striking Iran came out, BTC only reacted a little. Then CPI cooled down, and it bounced violently. On Polymarket, the bet on a BTC breakout above 52,000 today sits steady at a 99.85% probability and hasn’t moved—markets basically didn’t even take this seriously.

In the short term, the RSI is already up to 76, which puts it in a seriously overbought zone. Chasing is terrible value. Over the day, the most likely scenario is a push up to 64,900–65,100 to face resistance and then pull back, followed by a retest of 64,000–64,200 to build up momentum again. Focus on 64,000 as the lifeline: if it breaks, then you’ll have to look at the dense order/position area at 63,300–63,600.

Remember—geopolitical conflict is just noise; liquidity is the direction. Don’t let the news steer your trades. Hold your positions, wait for the pullback. $BTC ‌