BTC rises 0.37% in 15 minutes: Iran–Israel conflict escalation combined with easing inflation boosts demand for safe-haven assets

From 05:45 to 06:00 (UTC) on July 15, 2026, BTC briefly rose 0.37%, trading between 64,700.7-64,975.1 USDT, with a 0.42% amplitude. In the prior 24 hours, it gained 3.42%, rebounding from a $62,318 low to near $64,627; market volatility has increased and attention has noticeably risen.

The main drivers behind this move are the resonance between escalating geopolitical conflict and expectations for macro easing. On July 15, the United States launched another round of strikes against Iran; the contest for control of the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify. Brent crude jumped to $104.4 per barrel, sharply boosting risk-averse sentiment. At the same time, U.S. June core inflation fell significantly, marking the first major cooling in six years. The market interpreted this as a lower probability of the Fed raising rates in the near term, which is supportive of risk assets under expectations of looser liquidity. BTC, as a “digital gold” narrative asset, benefits both from safe-haven demand and a rebound in risk appetite.

On the technical side, short-term momentum appears sufficient: the 1-hour ADX is 47.92, indicating a strong directional trend in the short term. The order book shows notable buy-side support, with the buy/sell depth ratio at 2.69. A large buy order wall at $64,627.3 accounts for 86% of the total volume in the top 5 levels, suggesting possible institutional bid support. However, on the daily timeframe, ADX is only 17.24, meaning no clear medium- to long-term trend has formed; the current upside appears more driven by short-term events.

Be cautious that after geopolitical tensions ease, the safe-haven premium could fade quickly. Watch the $65,100 resistance level and the $64,627 support level. If gold and BTC’s positive correlation ends or if the daily ADX fails to break above 25, the short-term bullish logic may no longer hold.