In 24 hours, the “guardian angel” turned into a “roadside robber,” and then back again

—Trump’s stunt treats the market like it’s a joke.

Yesterday, Trump said he was the “guardian angel” of the Strait of Hormuz.

The angel has a price tag: a 20% toll.

A 2-million-barrel tanker pays more than $30 million for a single passage. Iran previously charged no more than $2 million per ship. With just one sentence, the U.S. charges 10 times as much.

The whole world erupted. Brazil’s president immediately blasted: “piratical behavior.” The International Maritime Organization said it’s illegal. Shipping companies said it’s no different from ambush robbery on the highway.

What about oil prices? They surged 9.6% in a single day. Within 24 hours, the number of merchant ships transiting fell from 57 to 3. Wall Street’s “NACHO trade” is fully back on—betting that Hormuz is absolutely impossible to reopen.

But in less than 24 hours, Trump made a 170-degree turn.

No more collecting. Instead, he’ll have the Gulf states invest in the United States—on an extremely massive scale.

In this world, the only thing that can overturn Trump is Trump the next day.

But do you think this is the end?

Fees were canceled, and the blockade was expanded. Hormuz was opened to all ships—except Iran. On Monday, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on targets along Iran’s coast, and Iran turned around and used missiles to attack two UAE oil tankers, leaving 1 dead and 8 injured.

Without the “protection fee,” the fighting is still going on.

So what does this kind of decision-making style from Trump mean for the market?

It means uncertainty becomes the norm.

A superpower’s Middle East policy can flip back and forth repeatedly within 24 hours. Yesterday it said it would collect 20%, today it says it won’t collect—what about tomorrow? Nobody knows. What the market fears most isn’t bad news—it’s news that keeps changing.

On Tuesday, oil prices jumped by about 4% at one point, but after Trump posted on social media, the gains were quickly given back. Brent crude rocketed 9.6% on Monday and closed up 1.7% on Tuesday—what a roller coaster ride: both long and short positions get harvested together.

With oil prices swinging at high levels and inflation expectations bouncing around, the blade of interest-rate hikes stays hanging overhead.

What about Bitcoin? With oil surging on Monday and rate-hike expectations heating up, Bitcoin was pushed down to around $62,000.

You think Hormuz has nothing to do with you? For every 10% rise in oil, Bitcoin gets slapped again.

Trump turns geopolitics into a reality show, but the market money is real and burning.

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