Welch is right—the market is too easily thrown off by short-term data. For this thing of rate-hike expectations, it’s more reliable to listen to what Powell says than to look at futures odds.

CoinWires News: Analyst signaturefd’s Tony Welch said the market has overestimated the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes. After weak June CPI inflation data was released, the futures market showed that the probability of a rate hike this month is lower, but according to data from CME, at least one rate hike this year still remains possible. Welch believes inflation is trending downward regardless of how fuel prices fluctuate. He expects Federal Reserve Chair Woch to try to keep inflation expectations near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and said: “I do believe he is trying to use his remarks to help set and maintain inflation expectations stable.”