“Strait of Hormuz Toll Gate”: A geopolitical absurd drama that flips from “violating international law” to “I’ll charge 20%”

On July 13, 2026, Trump suddenly announced that the United States would become the “guardian of the Strait of Hormuz,” charging a 20% fee on all goods transported through it, while also restarting the maritime blockade of Iran. The decision sharply contrasted with his government’s position from a month earlier—on June 24, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio had solemnly claimed that Iran’s “toll” was “a violation of international law.” Although the “toll farce” lasted less than 24 hours and was later reversed and canceled by Trump himself, what it exposed—its double-standard geopolitical logic, the severe disruption to the global energy market, and the cascading effects on risk assets such as crypto—deserves in-depth analysis. Brent crude surged 9.6% in a single day, the largest jump in six years; Bitcoin fell below $62,000—once again validating the see-saw effect of “oil up, coins down.” In the face of geopolitical storms, the “safe haven” narrative for crypto assets remains fragile.

1. From “violating international law” to “I’ll charge 20%”: a textbook-level double standard

Time goes back one month.

On June 24, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio made a stern public statement: “Iran absolutely cannot charge for the Strait of Hormuz, because that violates international law.” His exact words were even more blunt: “If you have to pay to pass—no matter what you call it, a toll or a donation—that’s a body of international water. There isn’t any country on Earth that supports having to pay to pass through the strait.” He added that the tolling was “not wise, impossible, and wouldn’t work at all.”

A month later, on July 13, 2026, Trump posted on social media, announcing that the United States would restore its maritime blockade of Iran and would charge a 20% fee on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. He dubbed the U.S. the “guardian of the Strait of Hormuz,” saying it was based on “fairness,” to offset “all costs necessary to ensure the security and protection of this extremely unstable region.”

This isn’t a policy adjustment—it’s a collapse of logic.

Rubio’s logic was: international waterways, free passage for all, so charging is illegal. Trump’s logic was: international waterways, the U.S. protects, so charging is reasonable. Same strait, same charging behavior—within a month it flipped from “violating international law” to “reasonable compensation.” If this kind of 180-degree reversal didn’t happen in real politics, even the most absurd screenwriter probably wouldn’t dare to write it.

What’s even more ironic is that Trump’s toll standard was wildly high. Based on current oil prices, 20% was equivalent to about $32 million for a very large crude carrier—far higher than the highest toll Iran previously charged, about $2 million. It was roughly ten times the usual related costs in shipping. Industry experts said plainly that there were almost no cargo operators who could afford such an exorbitant cost.

2. Iran’s “textbook-level mockery”: you’re right, but the real guardian is us

In response to Trump’s toll announcement, Iran’s foreign minister Alaragchi’s reply can be considered the pinnacle of geopolitical satire.

He wrote on social media platform X: “The U.S. president is completely right. Any party that provides safe navigation and passage security for merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz deserves to receive appropriate compensation for this service. Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz, and will always carry this role. Of course, 20% is too high. We will be fair.”

The brilliance of this statement lies in the fact that Alaragchi fully accepted Trump’s logical premise—“those who provide security should be paid”—but then turned that logic back on the U.S. The subtext was crystal clear: You’re right; charging is reasonable—but we, Iran, are the real guardians, and we charge less than you.

This is a classic diplomatic strategy of “using the spear of the opponent to pierce the shield of the opponent.” Trump tried to rationalize the U.S. military presence with “tolling,” while Alaragchi used the same logic to reinforce Iran’s sovereignty claims over the strait. In this contest over narrative control, Trump’s “toll” didn’t weaken Iran’s position. Instead, it gave Iran an opportunity to redefine its role.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps didn’t stay at the level of words. Two foreign oil tankers were reportedly accused of “ignoring warnings and shutting down navigation systems,” after which they were attacked and destroyed. The UAE said the two UAE-flagged tankers were hit by Iranian cruise missiles, resulting in 1 death and 8 injuries. Military actions and diplomatic rhetoric echoed each other: you say you’re the guardian? Then we’ll show you with actions who controls this body of water.

3. The 24-hour “farce”: Why did Trump change his tune so quickly?

However, this “toll performance” lasted less than 24 hours.

On July 14, 2026, Trump adjusted the plan on social media, announcing the cancellation of the 20% fee and replacing it with trade and investment agreements with Gulf countries. He said this decision was based on “productive dialogue” with leaders in the Middle East, and that the related investment would be “huge,” with the U.S. once again “winning—an unprecedented victory.”

Why did Trump change his tune so fast?

First, a 20% toll is almost unworkable operationally. The International Maritime Organization has already openly opposed this approach. Insurers might refuse to cover ships transiting the strait. In shipping, standard costs typically account for only 2% to 3% of the cargo value; 20% is roughly ten times the normal cost—these real constraints mean the toll plan faced major execution hurdles right from the start of its announcement.

Second, the reaction from Gulf allies may not have been positive. Trump said he changed course due to dialogue with Middle East leaders, but he did not reveal which specific countries or what commitments were involved. This suggests Gulf states may have been dissatisfied with the U.S.’ unilateral “protection fee” approach—after all, these countries are themselves the biggest users of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 20% charge would directly hit their energy export revenues.

Third, constraints under international law still exist. Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has reiterated that freedom of navigation must be respected and called for the Strait of Hormuz to return to an open state like before the war. The U.S. may ignore the rhetoric of international law, but it cannot completely ignore international public opinion and alliances.

But changing course doesn’t mean backing down. Trump made it clear that although the fees were canceled, a “comprehensive blockade” would continue—only the target would be limited to ships traveling to and from Iranian ports or carrying Iranian-related cargo. In other words, the U.S. moved from “charging the whole world” back to “only blockading Iran”—which is, in fact, the core content of the original “Iran blockade order.”

4. Market impact: Brent jumps 9.6%, Bitcoin falls below $62,000

The geopolitical farce hit markets immediately.

The oil market reacted first. In early morning on July 14 Beijing time, Brent crude surged 9.6%, closing at $83.30 per barrel, the largest single-day gain since May 2020. After Asia’s early session opened, Brent kept pushing higher, breaking above $85. WTI crude rose above $80 for the first time in a month.

A senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, Rebecca Babin, put it succinctly: “Restoring the blockade is another step in escalating the situation, and it’s forcing crude oil to reprice geopolitical risk.” The senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, Saul Kavonic, warned that if the conflict expanded more broadly to target key facilities, oil prices could approach $100.

The crypto market, meanwhile, saw the typical “risk-asset selloff.” Bitcoin fell below $62,000, with a 24-hour drop of over 3%. This sharply contrasted with the oil surge—the see-saw effect of “oil up, coins down.” As geopolitical uncertainty heats up, capital shifts from high-risk assets to traditional safe-haven assets and commodities.

This “oil up, coins down” pattern is not new. In June 2025, when Middle East geopolitical conditions abruptly shifted and signals emerged that Iran would release the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin’s low point reached $98,200 and the single-day drop exceeded 6%. Ethereum’s decline was even more pronounced, down more than 13%. At the time, market analysis pointed out that such extreme volatility stemmed from weekend liquidity shortages; if it happened on a trading day, the drop might not be as significant.

But this time was different. July 13 was a Monday, with ample market liquidity, yet Bitcoin still saw a notable decline. This suggests the problem isn’t just liquidity—rather, the market’s pricing logic for geopolitical risk is changing.

5. Deeper logic: Why the “safe haven” narrative for crypto assets fails again

Bitcoin has long been praised by supporters as “digital gold,” a decentralized value storage tool that doesn’t rely on any sovereign state. However, in every major geopolitical crisis, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-risk speculative asset than a safe-haven tool.

The Hormuz Strait crisis once again validated this view. When oil jumped on supply disruption risk, Bitcoin fell on risk-off sentiment. This contrasts with gold—gold often rises in geopolitical turmoil too, but Bitcoin’s volatility is far greater than gold’s, and Bitcoin’s declines typically move in sync with equities.

The underlying logic is that Bitcoin’s “safe haven” narrative is built on “fiat currency depreciation” and “sovereign credit crisis,” not on “geopolitical military conflicts.” When conflict pushes energy prices higher and inflation expectations rise, markets first think the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts or even raise rates—bad for risk assets. And when conflict increases the risk of a global economic recession, risk assets are sold off as well.

More importantly, the Bitcoin market still relies heavily on fiat liquidity and institutional capital. In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.06 billion, the largest month of redemptions since funds were launched in January 2024. Continued institutional outflows mean the market’s buying power is weakening, and any negative news can trigger cascading selloffs.

6. Outlook: New market normal under the “normalization” of conflict

Even though Trump canceled the 20% fee plan, military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran hasn’t stopped.

According to The New York Times, Trump has formally notified Congress that fighting between Iran and the U.S. has reignited. The U.S. Central Command announced that starting from July 13 (U.S. Eastern Time), the U.S. carried out strikes against Iran for the third consecutive night, and for the first time deployed maritime unmanned boats in combat, successfully striking port facilities at Iran’s Abbas Port naval base.

Iran also didn’t show weakness. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Garibabadi said Iran has full control of the Strait of Hormuz in wartime conditions. A spokesperson for the Headquarters of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central command said it would never allow the U.S. to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz and would respond forcefully to any U.S. military actions that enter designated routes without authorization.

This means the “Toll Gate” of the Strait of Hormuz may have ended, but the contest over blockade and counter-blockade will continue. About 20% of seaborne oil worldwide must be shipped through this route. Any substantive interference with navigation freedom could trigger sharp oil price swings, skyrocketing insurance costs, and disruptions across global supply chains.

For the crypto market, what does this mean?

First, geopolitical risk will become an important variable for the crypto market in the second half of 2026. Every major fluctuation in oil prices could transmit to risk assets through inflation expectations and monetary policy expectations. U.S. June CPI monthly change fell by 0.4%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in July is over 80%, but traders still expect the Fed might raise rates in September. If oil prices continue rising due to ongoing geopolitical conflict, the trend of inflation falling could reverse, compressing the Fed’s monetary policy room.

Second, Bitcoin’s “safe haven” narrative needs to be re-examined. Against the backdrop of globalization retreat and geopolitical conflicts becoming normalized, investors need to recognize more clearly that Bitcoin has risk-asset characteristics. It may show safe-haven behavior in certain scenarios (such as hyperinflation of fiat currencies), but in the face of military conflicts and energy crises, its performance is highly consistent with risk assets like stocks and emerging market currencies.

Finally, market volatility will remain elevated. Trump’s “rule by Twitter” style means policy uncertainty will persist. From “charging” to “canceling the fees” took less than 24 hours—this instability itself is a major source of market volatility. For traders, this means stricter risk management and more flexible position adjustments.

Conclusion: The truth behind the absurdity

The Strait of Hormuz “Toll Gate” is an absurd drama, but the absurdity hides real power logic and market logic.

Trump’s double standard isn’t ignorance—it’s a raw expression of power politics. International law constrains the weak; for the strong, it’s a tool. When the U.S. needs to blame Iran, international law becomes a weapon; when the U.S. needs to charge fees, “fairness” becomes an excuse. The speed of this logic shift and the magnitude of the contrast precisely show how fragile rules are in the jungle of international politics.

For market participants, this farce provides an important lesson: in the big chessboard of geopolitics, the “decentralization” narrative of crypto assets cannot immunize them from the shocks of centralized power. When the world’s most powerful country can declare charges for an international waterway at will, and when such declarations can be overturned within 24 hours, the market’s pricing logic must incorporate “geopolitical uncertainty” as a core variable.

Oil rockets; Bitcoin falls—this isn’t coincidence; it’s a rehearsal of the new normal.

Disclaimer: This article is for geopolitical and market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile—make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.

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