July 15, 2026, Wednesday — ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures Full Practical Trading Strategy

Current price 1878. The CPI is positive, pushing out a strong bullish “big candle” that breaks through the long-term ranging zone. The daily chart establishes a bullish trend, but the 4-hour RSI is 72 and has entered the overbought region. Today’s core idea: buy the pullback as the main approach; at higher levels, only use a very light position to test-sell for a short-term dip. Absolutely no chasing highs with heavy size. During the evening, remarks by Fed officials can trigger rapid oscillations, so strictly control leverage and position sizing throughout.

I. Key Price Levels for the Whole Cycle

Support (from near to far)

1. Intraday strength/weakness line: 1820-1830 (prior resistance turning into support, and the 20-day moving average)

2. Medium-term order-flow accumulation area: 1780-1790 (the breakout rally re-accumulation “lift platform”)

3. Bull trend defense floor: 1740 (if price breaks below this rebound structure, the current rebound setup fails)

Resistance (from near to far)

1. First intraday sell-pressure gate: 1900-1909 (upper Bollinger Band + dense trapped positions area)

2. Swing medium-term pressure: 1950

3. Medium-term strong psychological pressure: 2000 (integer level)

II. Three Standardized Opening Plans

Plan 1: Buy the pullback low (today’s main idea, highest priority)

Applicable conditions: a pullback to support that forms a hammer/rejection candle to stop the fall, 15-minute MACD shows bullish/“bottom” bearish divergence, and the order book shows large buy orders being absorbed.

1. First tranche regular low entry: 1820-1830
Stop loss: 1800. Take profit in stages at 1900 and 1950.

2. Second tranche add-on low entry (deeper pullback): 1780-1790
Stop loss: 1735. Medium/long-term targets: 1950 and 2000.

3. Position leverage: total capital 2%-7%; short-term leverage 3-5x; swing positions not exceeding 3x; prioritize isolated margin per-leg to control risk.

Plan 2: Short at high level (only to bet on a small retracement; very light position; no heavy sizing allowed)

Applicable conditions: a long upper shadow forms under overhead resistance, 15-minute top divergence, and no-volume upside that stalls higher.

1. Entry zone: 1900-1909

2. Unified stop loss: 1915 (if price holds above 1909 on rising volume, the short thesis is immediately invalidated—close unconditionally)

3. Take-profit target: 1830 (only look at short-term retracement; do not aim for deep downside)

4. Position leverage: within 2% of total capital; within 3x leverage. Once the first support is reached, exit fully—do not “hold and hope.”

Plan 3: Breakout follow-through to buy (only after trend confirmation)

Confirmation signal: the 1-hour chart stands firm above 1909 on increasing volume; volume expands in sync; funds continue with net inflows.

Entry point: near 1912 to chase long; stop loss 1870; targets 1950 and 2000.

III. No-Trade / Observation Range

The 1830-1900 middle oscillation zone. In overbought conditions, the probability of “needle sweeps” that stop you out is extremely high. Frequent back-and-forth movement also wastes on trading fees. In this range, do not open any new positions—wait for price to touch the upper and lower borders of the box before planning again.

IV. Hard Risk-Control Rules for Overbought Uptrend

1. Leverage control: maximum 5x leverage for the whole day; avoid any position over 8x with heavy size. During the evening US session when Fed officials speak, reduce to within 3x. Use isolated margin (逐仓) throughout to prevent one losing isolated position from dragging down the entire account.

2. Capital risk control: maximum loss on a single trade must be strictly limited to within 1% of total account capital. After two consecutive stop-outs, stop all trading for that day.

3. Risk/reward standards: for longs, profit/loss ratio ≥ 2:1. For short-term trial shorts, profit/loss ratio ≥ 1.5:1. If the criteria are not met, skip the entry.

4. Position management: when holding a low-position swing long, into strength above 1900 reduce by 50% of the position size; do not overweight and do not hold overnight just to bet on Fed officials’ hawkish-leaning remarks.

5. Stop-loss “iron law”: place a limit stop loss at the same time as opening; do not manually cancel the stop loss, and do not “hold through floating losses” positions.

6. Slippage handling: ETH liquidity is weaker than BTC. For fast-moving volatility, pre-plan a 3-5 point slippage buffer to prevent failed fills when price suddenly jumps.

V. Three Complete Market Response Playbooks

1. High-level range building/energy accumulation (most likely intraday): price sells off from the 1900-1909 resistance area; pull back to support at 1820-1830 and then rise again. Rely on moving averages for low entries the entire time; only lightly test shorts on the highs.

2. Strong one-way upside: price stands firm above the 1909 pressure zone with volume, opening upside space. Hold longs while moving the stop to breakeven. First target: 1950; further look toward the 2000 level.

3. Technical deep retracement: 1909 keeps resisting and cannot be broken. Bulls take concentrated profit and exit. Price dips to the 1780-1790 support; as long as 1740 is not broken, the medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged. If price revisits support, continue to set up low entries.

VI. Core Variables Affecting the Order Book/Chart

1. Technical conflict: the medium-term bullish trend is intact, but RSI on the short term is overbought—chasing at high levels has a very poor盈亏比 (risk/reward). The best entry timing is a pullback to moving-average support.

2. Macro driver: June CPI cooling has lowered rate hike expectations, which is the core catalyst for this rally. Today’s Fed official remarks with a hawkish tone can trigger a short-term rapid retracement; the retracement should be treated as a low-buy opportunity.

3. Funding/positioning on the market: in the last 24 hours, shorts are concentrated in liquidation and exiting; short positions in the futures market are largely cleared. Total ETH staking on-chain is steady at 33%. Spot ETF outflows are slowing; low-level absorption is sufficient with a good foundation—there is no sustained heavy selloff capital base driving continuous deep crashes.

4. Correlation “wind vane”: BTC at the 64000 support/losing it determines the overall timing rhythm of ETH’s rise/fall. When BTC loses pressure and falls back, ETH’s retracement magnitude will expand in sync.

5. Potential risks: short-term bulls have abundant profit-taking available, and a sudden clustered “take-profit plunge” can happen at any time. Any unexpected safe-haven news from Middle East geopolitical conflicts can rapidly interrupt the rally rhythm—watch for changes in the news feed during the session #沃什重申坚守2%通胀目标 $ETH ‌