Trump flip-flops again! $CL It spikes up and then pulls back—this script is clear to me. Are we following it or not?

Brothers, Trump’s moves are truly impressive. Yesterday he had just called for collecting a 20% Strait transit fee; Gulf countries called through the night to oppose it. Today he changed his tune—no more fee; instead, Gulf countries are to increase investment in the US. WTI crude oil, from 80.58, was smashed straight back to 79.27—taking a ride on a roller coaster.

But canceling the fee doesn’t mean the fighting has stopped. The US military carried out airstrikes on Iran for the fourth consecutive night, restoring the blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian missile attacks hit two UAE oil tankers, causing 1 death and 8 injuries. The Iranian military has stated that “it will not make concessions on the Strait issue.”

The US Energy Minister added: energy facilities are the “final target.” It sounds like they won’t directly hit oil fields in the short term, but the blockade hasn’t ended and the strikes haven’t stopped—so the geopolitical premium hasn’t completely faded.

In terms of data, last week US crude oil inventories fell by 564,000 barrels, and supply conditions remain tight. Technically, overhead pressure is at 80-80.5; a breakout is likely at 82-83. Support is at 78-78.5; if that level is lost, 76.5-77 is next.

MIG long/short execution strategy:
Conservative: wait for a pullback around 78-78.5 to go long; the aggressive approach is to go long directly near the current price around 79. For short positions: when it stalls in the 80-80.5 area and upward momentum stalls, try a small short position.

Personal view: Trump’s mouth, crude oil’s legs—what he says doesn’t matter; what matters is what he does. The fee is gone, but the missiles haven’t stopped, and the blockade hasn’t stopped. In the short term, oil prices may stay in high-level choppy consolidation, but every pullback is a chance to get on the train.

The geopolitical premium hasn’t run its course yet—don’t let mouthy flip-flops knock you off the trade.

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