Macroeconomic Black Swan: Escalation in the US-Iran conflict reshapes the Risk-Off logic

Trump is planning a comprehensive strike against Iran in the war room, pushing the geopolitical game up to the brink of a systemic war. The move is likely to spark a surge in crude oil and synchronize with stagflation expectations, shattering hopes for near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Global liquidity risk premia face repricing; Crypto, as a high-Beta asset, is the first to take a hit. Market logic instantly flips to extreme risk aversion (Risk-Off).
Market walkthrough and retreat lines:
Under panic-driven liquidity withdrawal, existing short-term technical supports fail.
BTC: The weak support at 64.4k will most likely break. The key defense shifts down to 63.3k-63.6k, with extreme support at 61k.
ETH/SOL: High-Beta amplifies pullbacks. ETH retreats to 1810 (extreme 1750); SOL’s 74.8k support is invalidated, with a move down to 70-71.5k.
Trading discipline:
Longs immediately reduce exposure and set hard stop-losses; do not add positions on the left side. Shorts holding profits should not chase; guard against liquidity “pins” driven by “buy the expectation, sell the fact.” No spot short positions—stay on the sidelines. In a geopolitical crisis, cash is king; risk control comes first. $BTC #沃什重申坚守2%通胀目标