Breaking black swan! “Yellow hair” is ready to go for a hard hit—after a surge in crypto, the pullback risk is at its peak

$BTC
Just after biting into the CPI spike, an emotional shock came right on cue. “Yellow hair” held a core meeting in the White House war room to discuss a new large-scale strike against Iran. The operation scope is broader than the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz—making it clear they want to escalate the Middle East conflict and force Iran to back down on both Strait navigation and nuclear issues.

$ETH
Oil moved first, and inflation expectations bounced right back: the Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline of global oil transport, accounting for nearly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trading. If the conflict escalates, oil prices will inevitably jump higher, and oil prices are a key driver of inflation.

Last night, June CPI just came out with a major surprise: inflation was far below expectations. The market had just cut back rate-hike expectations, and even started to price in rate cuts in advance. Now that oil-price expectations are being lifted again, the logic of inflation rebounding immediately returns. Hawkish Fed expectations may very likely make a comeback—leading to a stronger dollar that directly weighs on all risk assets #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡