7.15 BTC big-picture thinking

The short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish. After a pullback and stabilization, continue to look for upside, but distinguish between the pressure zones at 65,000-65,500.

Below support: 64,000-64,200. After dipping to 61,800, expect a quick rebound; continuously regain moving averages, with lows rising and higher lows forming.

Above resistance: 65,000-65,500. This is the previous dense trapped-liquidity zone; multiple attempts have brought selling pressure each time.

① On the 1-hour chart, price has reclaimed short-term cycle moving averages, with lows continuously rising. A bullish consolidation structure has formed—this is a trend reversal after a technical repair.
② The U.S. June CPI month-over-month fell by 0.4%, the largest drop since April 2020. The probability of a July rate hike fell sharply from nearly 50% to 15%, and macro pressure has eased significantly.
③ Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 2,632 BTC in a single day (worth $311 million). After the CPI data, institutional funds clearly returned.

If the pullback to 64,000-64,200 holds and does not break, go long. Place the stop-loss below 63,600. Targets: first look at 65,000-65,500; if it breaks out, then look at 66,000-66,500.

Candlesticks are only a projection of the market’s psychology; understanding yourself matters more than understanding the chart. $BTC ‌