An Overview of BTC Short-Term Trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC Major Market Structure Change
Compared with the deep sell-off on July 13 (low point 61,750), BTC showed a strong V-shaped reversal on July 14. The price rebounded from the July 13 18:15 low of 61,750 to the July 14 22:15 high of 65,020.78. The maximum intraday gain exceeded $3,270, fully retracing all losses since July 10. The current price 64,599 is below the July 10 high of 64,660, and the market is in a critical resistance-zone battle phase.
1. Dow Theory
Major trend (1-hour timeframe): Since the historical high of 82,814 on May 6, the main downtrend saw an important reversal at the July 1 low of 57,721. After the ABC rebound from July 1 to July 10 (A wave 64,597 → B wave 61,470 → C wave 64,660) ended, prices fell back to 61,750 from July 10–13. However, on July 14 there was a strong breakout on expanding volume: the price surged from 61,750 to 65,020, breaking the prior high of 64,660 in one move. This move shattered the earlier pessimistic expectation of “the ABC rebound ends and a new round of decline begins,” suggesting that the major trend may be shifting from deep decline to a rebound phase after bottom formation.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the July 13 low of 61,750, the short-term uptrend has been extremely strong. The short-term lows moved up from 61,750 (7-13 18:15) to 62,191 (7-14 00:00) → 62,240 (7-14 03:00) → 62,427 (7-14 07:00) → 62,500 (7-14 06:00) → 63,160 (7-14 12:30) → 64,443 (7-14 15:30) → 64,479 (7-14 22:00), showing a strong pattern of “lows continuing to rise.” The short-term high moved up from breaking 64,660 (7-10) to 65,020 (7-14 22:15), setting a new high for the month.
Dow conclusion: The major trend may be undergoing a turn; the breakout on expanding volume on July 14 is the key signal. The short-term trend has entered a strong up phase. 64,000-64,500 is the short-term swing line between bulls and bears. If price can hold and break above 65,000, it will open upside room of 66,000-67,000; if it fails and drops below 63,500, the rebound may end and price could return to consolidation and adjustment.
2. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:
Bottom fractal: On July 13 at 18:15, a strong bottom fractal formed at 61,750, after which price continued to rebound.
Top fractal: On July 14 at 22:15, a new top fractal formed at 65,020, but the subsequent pullback was limited (lowest 64,738), showing strong long positioning.
Bi (stroke) and segments:
From the 61,750 bottom fractal to the 65,020 top fractal formed one upward stroke; the rise is about $3,270, with extremely strong momentum.
From the 65,020 top fractal to the 64,738 bottom fractal (7-14 23:00) formed one downward stroke; the drop is only 282, with very weak momentum.
From the 64,738 bottom fractal to the 65,016 top fractal (7-15 00:00) formed one upward stroke; the rise is 278, indicating longs are still probing new highs.
Central area:
The previous downtrend central zone of 62,000-63,500 has been fully broken upward and has become strong support below.
A new rising central zone is being built in the 64,000-65,000 range. The current price 64,599 is slightly above the middle of this central zone, indicating a strong consolidation posture.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke has extremely strong strength (+3,270), while the downward stroke is very weak (-282), showing that longs fully dominate. The previous downtrend central zone has been broken upward, and a new rising central zone is being formed. In the near term, watch whether effective bottom fractal support can form around 64,000; if it does, the upward stroke may restart. If price directly breaks below 63,500, the rebound may be over.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour swing structure, the move since the May 6 high of 82,814 is re-labeled as:
Higher-degree five-wave decline (completed):
1st wave: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), about -4,300
2nd wave: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), about +2,551
3rd wave: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), about -21,956 (main impulsive decline)
4th wave: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), about +8,152
5th wave: 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1), about -9,526
ABC rebound correction (evolved into a more complex structure):
A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), +6,876
B wave: 64,597 → 61,470 (July 8), -3,127
C wave: 61,470 → 64,660 (July 10), +3,190 (C wave completed)
X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,750 (July 13), -2,910
A new uptrend wave (in progress):
1st wave (new): 61,750 → 65,020 (July 14), +3,270, strong momentum
2nd wave pullback (possible): 65,020 → current 64,599; pullback is about 421, an extremely shallow correction
Wave conclusion: The current move may be in the early stage of a new uptrend. The 1st wave rise of 3,270 is strong, and the 2nd wave pullback is extremely shallow (only 421), showing bullish strength. If the 2nd wave pullback completes in 64,000-64,500 and then triggers the 3rd wave, targets are 67,000-68,000. If it breaks below 63,500, then the 1st wave ends and price may return to adjustment.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price characteristics: The July 1 crash stage showed a very obvious expanding-volume feature. During the July 1–10 rebound phase, volume expanded moderately. During July 10–13, the pullback occurred on shrinking volume, indicating limited selling pressure. On July 14, there was a huge breakout on expanding volume: in the 12:00 period, trading volume reached the 195 million level, and price surged from 62,777 to 63,888. In the 15:00 period, another 185 million-level volume appeared, and price pushed from 64,244 up to 64,878. Overall, it formed a positive volume-price combination of “shrinking volume during pullback + expanding volume during breakout.”
Key volume-price nodes:
At 18:15 on July 13, there was a low-volume stop-the-fall (volume only 155 million), forming a stage bottom at 61,750.
At 12:00 on July 14, a bullish engulfing-style candle appeared on expanding volume (volume at the 195 million level), pushing from 62,784 to 63,888; the body was about +1,104, confirming the start of a long counterattack.
At 15:00 on July 14, a bullish candle appeared on expanding volume (volume at the 185 million level), pushing from 64,244 to 64,878; confirming that the breakout is valid.
At 22:15 on July 14, a bullish candle appeared on expanding volume (volume at the 741 million level), pushing from 64,508 to 65,020; the body was about +512, confirming that the 1st wave topped.
Recent volume-price status: From the late session of July 14 to early July 15, volume has contracted somewhat, and price has consolidated in the 64,500-65,000 range—normal absorption after the breakout.
Volume-price conclusion: After the expanding-volume breakout on July 14, volume and price are well-coordinated. Key observation points: If price pulls back to 64,000-64,500 and stops falling on shrinking volume, the 3rd wave may start; if price breaks down below 63,500 on expanding volume, the rebound may be over.
5. Order Flow
Volume distribution (Volume Profile): The volume control point (POC) from the recent 5 days (July 10–15) is at 62,018. The current price 64,599 is about 2,581 above the POC, showing a clear premium state where price is above value (Above Value).
Current position analysis: Price 64,599 is far above POC 62,018, meaning it is in the above-value region and deviates significantly. The top of the Value Area is about 64,333; the current price has broken above the top of the Value Area, indicating buyers are fully dominant in the short term.
High-volume nodes (HVN):
64,000-64,500: Core support HVN (July 14 dense trading zone; current strong support)
65,000-65,500: Overhead resistance HVN (July 14 late-session dense trading zone; current resistance)
62,000-63,000: Below support HVN (July 13 dense trading zone; now turned into support)
59,000-60,000: Extreme support HVN (July 1 dense trading zone)
Delta analysis: During the July 14 surge, Delta turned strongly positive (+6 billion-level), confirming that aggressive buying is dominant. The current Delta MA12 has sharply turned positive from near the zero axis (+6.88T), indicating buyer power fully dominates.
Order flow conclusion: Price is far above POC 62,018, and buyers are fully dominant in the short term. The two key HVN supports below are 64,000 and 63,500. If Delta stays positive and shows stop-fall on shrinking volume at these levels, the 3rd wave may start; if Delta turns deeply negative and price breaks below 63,500, the rebound is over.
6. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 82,814 (phase high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 65,020 (July 14 high)
Key resistance: 65,000 (psychological level), 64,660 (July 10 high; already broken)
Key support: 64,000-64,500 (July 14 breakout zone), 63,500 (bull-bear dividing line), 62,500 (July 13 consolidation zone), 61,750 (July 13 low), 57,721 (July 1 low)
Candlestick patterns:
At 18:15 on July 13, a candlestick with a long lower wick appeared, forming a “hammer” bottom pattern at 61,750.
At 12:00 on July 14, a big bullish candle appeared (body about +1,104). It surged from 62,784 to 63,888, forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.
At 22:15 on July 14, a bullish candle with a long upper wick appeared (body about +512, upper wick about 203). After pushing from 64,508 up to 65,020, it pulled back to 64,882, forming a “shooting star” pattern, indicating that sell pressure above 65,000 has begun to show.
Trend structure:
Short term: An up channel since July 13’s 61,750 is forming. The lower-track support is about 63,500, and the upper-track resistance is about 65,500.
Medium term: The downtrend line since May 6’s 82,814 has been broken, and price has already moved above that trend line.
Price action conclusion: In the near term, the market is in the early stage of a new uptrend wave. 64,000-64,500 is the near-term bullish defense line, and 65,000 is the bull-bear dividing line: a breakout opens 66,000-67,000 upside space; if 64,000 is lost, price may revisit the 63,500-62,500 range.
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory suggests that signals for a potential turn in the major trend have appeared; the expanding-volume breakout of 64,660 on July 14 is the key turning point. Chan Theory shows the upward stroke has extremely strong strength (+3,270) while the downward stroke is very weak (-282), meaning longs fully dominate. Elliott Wave Theory may indicate that the new uptrend is in the stage where wave 1 has ended and wave 2 is pulling back. The volume-price relationship presents a positive combination of “shrinking volume during pullback + expanding volume during breakout.” Order flow shows POC at 62,018; price is in a premium state far above POC, and Delta MA12 has turned sharply positive. Price action shows a “breakout bullish candle” pattern, with short-term longs dominating.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
Bullish scenario: If price near 64,000-64,500 shows shrinking volume while stopping the fall + bottom fractal + Delta turning positive, then you can try to go long. Targets: 65,000 → 65,500 → 66,500. Stop loss: 63,300.
Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 65,000-65,200 and top fractals appear along with expanding-volume declines, you can short briefly. Targets: 64,000 → 63,500. Stop loss: 65,600.
Current status: 64,599 is in the consolidation zone after the breakout, with short-term longs dominating. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to 64,000-64,500 to confirm support before going long, or wait for a break above 65,000 to confirm the start of the 3rd wave before chasing.