$CXMT ChangXin Technology

1. Basic information
Total shares outstanding: about 66.88B shares
Shares to be issued in this IPO: about 6.6881 billion shares, about 10% of the total shares outstanding after issuance
IPO offer price: 8.66 yuan/share
IPO fundraising size: about 57.92 billion yuan; if the green shoe option is fully exercised, the fundraising size could be as high as about 66.6 billion yuan
Market value corresponding to the offer price: about 579.2 billion yuan (RMB)
Subscription date: July 16, 2026
Estimated listing date: July 27; final terms to be based on the announcement by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Based on the current pre-market 6U:
Implied RMB price of about 43 yuan/share
Compared with the 8.66 yuan offer price, up nearly 5 times
Implied total market value of about 2.88 trillion yuan (RMB)
2. Business composition
ChangXin Technology is the largest domestic DRAM manufacturer in China. It adopts an integrated IDM model that covers everything from R&D and design to wafer manufacturing and packaging sales. Its main businesses can be divided into three parts:
Standard-type DRAM
Includes DDR4, DDR5, and other products, mainly used for servers, personal computers, and data centers. This is currently the most core source of revenue.
Mobile-type DRAM
Includes LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X, mainly used in smartphones, smart cars, and various mobile terminals.
Next-generation storage technologies
Includes high-performance server memory, advanced-process DRAM, and high-bandwidth storage directions for AI demand. It is still in a phase of ongoing R&D and capacity expansion, and also the biggest part of the valuation upside imagination going forward.
In Q4 2025, ChangXin Technology’s global DRAM market share already reached about 7.67%, ranking first in China and fourth globally, behind Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron.
3. Float structure
Although ChangXin Technology issued 10% of its total share capital in the IPO, the amount of chips that can truly be traded directly after listing is not that high.
The initial strategic placement accounts for 50% of the issuance, with a lock-up period mainly of 12 months.
Among the remaining off-market (offline) issuance portion, another 70% must be locked up for 6 months; only the online issuance and 30% of the offline placement can be directly tradable.
Roughly based on the current issuance structure, the actual float shares in the initial listing period are about 1.47 billion shares, accounting for about 2.2% of the total shares.
Based on the offer price, the initial tradable market capitalization is about 12.7 billion yuan.
Using 6U corresponding to 43 yuan, the initial tradable market capitalization is about 63.4 billion yuan.
So in the initial period after listing, even though the total market cap is very large, the share of tradable chips is very low. In the short term, the price depends more on fund sentiment and chip games.
The fastest route is when listing has reached 6 months; some off-market restricted shares begin to be released. After 12 months of listing, the strategic placement chips gradually enter the window for unlock.
4. Fundamentals and performance
ChangXin Technology reported revenue of about 28.8k yuan in 2025, with attributable net profit of about 61.8B yuan, achieving annual profitability for the first time.
After entering 2026, driven by DRAM price increases, capacity release, and product mix improvements, performance began to surge significantly:
For the first half of 2026, expected revenue: 110 billion—120 billion yuan
Expected attributable net profit: 50 billion—57 billion yuan
However, it’s also important to note that storage chips are inherently a strong-cyclical industry. The current profit blowout is driven not only by the logic of domestic substitution and AI demand, but also by riding the DRAM price cycle.
You can’t simply annualize the first-half profits permanently.
5. Valuation analysis
IPO offer price: 8.66 yuan
Implied market value: about 579.2 billion yuan
Based on 2025 profits, the IPO earnings multiple (P/E) is about 308.9x; but if you roughly annualize the first-half 2026 profits, the implied valuation is only about 5—6x.
6. Summary
ChangXin Technology’s core logic is very clear:
A domestic DRAM leader, fourth globally, AI storage demand, performance surge. Plus, in the initial post-listing period, only about 2.2% of the float is actually tradable.
So in the short term, it’s more like a low-float super meme stock wrapped in a domestic-chip and AI narrative; its price may not follow traditional valuation.
But 6U is already close to 5 times the offer price, implying a market cap near 2.9 trillion yuan, essentially pricing in multiple expectations early—fourth globally, domestic substitution, AI storage, and low float.
It’s not strange that short-term sentiment keeps pushing the valuation up to this level; but from the medium-to-long term perspective, it will still gradually revert to the DRAM cycle, technological gap, real market share, and the sustainability of earnings.
It’s now foreign capital pricing—feels like A-share open isn’t this high.
On hype it’s already 7.2U; it’s about to overtake Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by one trillion.