I. BTC order book status

Fueled by a cooler-than-expected U.S. June CPI reading (month-over-month -0.4%, the largest drop since April 2020), Bitcoin rebounded strongly today, breaking above $64,000. As of the morning, BTC is trading in the $64,500–$65,000 range, with a 24-hour gain of about 4%.

Key data:

· Current price: about $64,500–$65,000
· 1-hour RSI: 74.8 (overheated)
· Funding rate: 0.01% neutral
· Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 25 (extreme fear)
· 24-hour liquidations: $438 million, with short liquidations of $277 million > long liquidations of $162 million

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II. Main strategy references

🔼 Long strategy (bull trend continuation)

Basis: The large bullish candle breaks above the 5-day moving average; MACD bullish histogram expansion; price is running along the upper Bollinger Band. A short-term pullback is a long-side shakeout. The target is to challenge the $65,000–$65,500 resistance zone.

Strategy type | Entry range | Stop loss | Take profit targets
Bracket long | 64,000–64,200 | 63,600 | TP1 65,000 / TP2 65,100
Swing long | 63,750 | 63,100 | TP1 64,100 / TP2 65,000
Breakout chasing long | 64,600–64,850 | 64,150 | TP1 65,200 / TP2 65,650 / TP3 66,150

Support levels reference: 64,300–63,800, 62,800, 61,800

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🔽 Short strategy (pullback under pressure at high levels)

Basis: This rally is part of a news-driven oversold rebound, and the larger downtrend structure remains unchanged. The $65,100 area has shown a spike-and-reversal; over the last 15 minutes it has maintained high-level consolidation, and multiple attempts have failed to break through.

Strategy type | Entry range | Stop loss | Take profit targets
Short-term short | 65,100 | 65,300 | 64,000
Sell on rebound (in batches) | 65,100–65,500 | as conditions allow | first target 64,200; if broken, look to 63,200
High-altitude short strategy | above 65,900 (light position) | above 66,600 | 64,500–63,500–62,000

Resistance levels reference: 65,100–65,600

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III. Integrated interpretation

Bull logic: The CPI data reinforces expectations that the Fed will hold steady in July; the moving average system shows a synchronized upward push; short liquidations are larger than long liquidations, and forced closing of shorts amplifies the rally.

Bear logic: Price is still about 15% below the 200-day moving average ($73,662); 1H RSI has reached 74.8 (overheated); the fear index remains in extreme fear, so chasing higher carries higher risk; the Middle East geopolitical situation is still an uncertain variable.

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⚠️ Risk warning: The above strategies all come from public market analysis and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please strictly control position size, set stop losses, and make rational decisions.