A major geopolitical “black swan” has landed! The US is about to fully blockade Iranian ports, and a new round of intense volatility in the crypto market is coming.

I just saw this breaking news on Odaily, and my chest tightened instantly. The US has already officially set the action timeline. At 4:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 15, a maritime authority led by the US Navy will impose a maritime blockade on Iran’s entire coastline, ports, and oil terminals. This blockade covers an extremely strict range. No matter which national flag a vessel flies—so long as the target is an Iranian domestic port—it will be controlled. Only ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in transit, neutral vessels whose destination is not Iran, and humanitarian cargo ships will be allowed to pass.

Judging from the news from the past few days that Iran directly shut down applications for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the standoff between Iran and the US has completely escalated—from a game of maneuvering to actual action. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East has been pushed to the limit. At this level of maritime blockade, the first thing it is likely to trigger is sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Global inflation expectations will be stirred again, directly disrupting the original rhythm of macro capital. And the crypto market has always been the most sensitive arena to geopolitical events. In the short term, Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely see major turbulence. The movement of safe-haven capital in and out will make the long-vs-short battles on the charts even fiercer, and the market’s previously relatively steady price action will basically be rewritten.

Many people might think that if the blockade doesn’t directly lead to war, then there’s nothing to worry about. But in the crypto world, it has never been afraid of wars that have already erupted—it fears this kind of gradually escalating, uncertainty-filled geopolitical confrontation. Over the next few days, every related piece of news from the Middle East will directly influence whether the market rises or falls. Right now, you absolutely cannot open positions casually using the old way of thinking. High-leverage contracts must be handled with extra caution. The sharp pin-spike type of price action caused by geopolitical “black swans” is extremely damaging. Risk control should always come first—after this, the market’s variables will only keep increasing.