7.15 BTC: CPI disappoints by cooling unexpectedly + Waller’s debut sets the tone! BTC V rebound, reclaiming 3,000 points

$BTC
Entry: around 648-652, set orders near the 655 breakout zone, then watch 640-628

Macroeconomic tailwinds are being realized, and the expectations gap is being repaired: the month-on-month CPI falling more than expected is only a brief impulse positive and has not changed the underlying risk of inflation that keeps recurring (Middle East geopolitics pushing up oil prices, and sticky core services inflation still present); Waller’s debut hasn’t turned dovish—he hasn’t added to hawkishness either—so the market has overly priced the optimistic expectation of an “end to rate hikes”; once sentiment fades, the gains must be given back

Technical pressure from overhead is bearing down; overbought needs a pullback: 651-652 is a prior trapped-long dense zone plus the previous high of this rebound—sell pressure is concentrated there, making the first breakout extremely difficult; after a daily surge of 3,000 points, the price is seriously deviated from short-term moving averages—the upper band of the Bollinger Bands is under pressure, deviation is out of range—so the technicals naturally have a built-in need for a pullback for repair

Funds take profits; longs are crowded, making them prone to stampedes: this is a news-driven sharp rally—after the CPI “shoe drops,” bottom-fishing funds are strongly inclined to realize gains; in the futures market, long positions surged rapidly, with long crowding maxed out—once there isn’t enough volume/energy to absorb it, it’s easy to trigger a pullback with “longs getting liquidated in a cascade”#伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡