Yang Guang bit | July 15 $BTC precise strategy, master the trend end to end

Key takeaways

BTC received a boost from CPI and started a strong rebound from the 61,800 low on 6/18. It surged to around 65,100, with a daily rebound of over 3,000 points. The short-term bullish trend is now officially established. The current price is consolidating in a high-range around 64,600, which is a mid-way repair after the rise—not a top turning into a pullback. Below, 64,000-64,200 is a strong support zone. With macro rate-hike expectations cooling sharply and funds continuing to flow back in, a pullback is a low-buy opportunity. Today’s overall plan is mainly to buy the dip; shorting is only for quick, short-term trades and take-profit/stop based on fast execution.

Today’s plan

Long entry timing: pull back to 64,000-64,200
Long averaging-down zone: 63,500-63,700
Stop-loss: below 63,200

Tiered take-profit
First take-profit target: 65,000-65,200
Second take-profit target: 65,800-66,000
Third take-profit target: 66,500-66,800

Light short reference: on a high push to 65,200-65,400, enter light shorts; stop-loss 65,700; targets 64,500-64,300; quick in and quick out

News flow - funds flow - technical analysis breakdown

I. International finance & geopolitical news

June CPI data came in across the board below expectations: up 3.5% year over year and down 0.4% month over month. The probability of a July rate hike from the Federal Reserve dropped sharply from 42% to 17%, causing rate-hike expectations to cool significantly. The U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem. The macro environment fully turned favorable for risk assets, providing the core driving force for BTC’s rebound.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have continued to ease, the geopolitical risk premium has faded, market risk appetite has kept recovering, and funds have gradually been flowing back into the crypto market.
There are no new negative developments on the crypto regulatory front; the policy environment remains stable. Incremental sentiment continues to be released, supporting the market as it moves higher.

II. On-chain & capital data

BTC spot ETF funds have surged back in significantly. Institutional bottom-fishing intent has noticeably increased. Long-term funds have returned to the market to reposition, providing fundamental capital support for this round of rebound.
In the futures market, longs have been adding positions continuously. The long-to-short positioning ratio keeps rising, with bullish power taking the lead. Market sentiment toward going long is strong, and upside momentum is sufficient.
On-chain “whale” addresses have stopped selling heavily at high levels and have begun gradually accumulating. Selling pressure at the bottom has eased significantly, and upside resistance keeps decreasing.$BTC ‌#美国核心CPI未达预期