This week, global financial markets will focus on Capitol Hill in the United States. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will make his first appearance as Fed chair at a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee on July 14 at 22:00 Beijing time, then testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 22:00 the following day. This is the first time since Warsh took office that he has accepted congressional questioning on the semiannual monetary policy report, and it is also seen by the market as the most important trading event of the week.

What makes this hearing special is the triple overlap in timing. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday at 20:30, and the June Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday at 20:30. With the CPI data being released only 90 minutes before Warsh’s first hearing, it means Warsh can hardly avoid having to comment on the latest inflation figures. At the same time, major financial institutions—including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs—will concentrate on disclosing their second-quarter earnings before the market opens on Tuesday. Inflation data, bank earnings, and congressional testimony by the Fed chair converge within the same window period, and the market is facing the most intensive release of policy and fundamental signals since the beginning of this year. From three dimensions—Warsh’s policy signals from the hearing, the economic resilience revealed in bank earnings, and how the inflation data revises expectations for rate cuts—this article systematically analyzes how this round of multiple variables will affect the next leg of U.S. stock market moves.

Warsh’s debut: From a “silence strategy” to a congressional pressure test
Warsh has been in office as Fed chair for a month. During this time, he turned “saying less” into a distinctive