7.15 Gold Fund Strategy Gold Morning Review: After a violent surge of 120 points, gold pulled back—long vs. short battle for the 4050 level!

Yesterday gold staged a stunning V-shaped reversal. After consolidating and forming a base around 3980 in the Asian session, the CPI in the evening delivered a violent surge. In a 15-minute timeframe, a single long bullish candle directly broke above the 4100 level, with the high reaching $4102. The daily range exceeded $120. Then, longs took profits and the price quickly dropped. It is currently trading around the 4054 area, consolidating, and longs and shorts have entered a deadlock.

News: Two forces in tandem pushed up gold prices. First, the US June CPI came in weaker than expected, and the market heavily priced in an earlier Fed rate-cut timeline. Both the dollar and US Treasury yields were pressured, providing currency-level support for gold. Second, the conflict near the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the US/related parties continues to escalate; geopolitical risk-off sentiment has intensified. Oil’s rise lifted inflation expectations back, drawing in safe-haven buying into gold. In addition, bargain-hunting funds around the 4000 level combined with short-sellers’ concentrated position closures, further magnifying the rebound.

Technicals: The 15-minute timeframe shows a classic rise-then-fall pattern. The upper wick indicates heavy selling pressure above 4100. For short-term resistance, focus on the 4080-4100 range. For support, first watch 4050; if it breaks, price may return to test the 4000 level. On the 4-hour timeframe, it is still inside a descending channel. This rebound looks more like an oversold correction; whether it can reverse still depends on the effectiveness of a break above 4100.

Trading reference: On rallies in the 4060-4070 area, sell in batches; targets 4030 and 4000. $XAUT