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Taking Bitcoin as an example: as long as Bitcoin is at a low point on the weekly or monthly chart, starting a DCA at that time won’t feel too uncomfortable. What feels painful is when it drops—you see others’ emotions turning pessimistic, and you follow suit, losing confidence. Then it rises, and suddenly it’s like divine inspiration—becoming the most devout crypto believer, instantly regaining confidence and faith. You then keep opening DCA on the slopes, even at higher levels, firmly believing it will keep making new highs.
But after you DCA for a while, a big pullback hits, and then you start doubting yourself again. At the low point, you begin to watch from the sidelines or even cut losses. When it goes up, you start DCA again. After repeating this cycle, all your holdings end up concentrated around relatively high points and the highs. A long bear run follows—while you’re cursing, you’re also cutting losses.
DCA doesn’t require technical analysis; it only requires patience. Have patience and wait for a low price. If you choose DCA, it means the market is already pessimistic—only then will you start buying. If you can’t overcome fear, how can you overcome the greed to reduce exposure? If you miss it, just wait for the next wave. The trading market lacks everything—except opportunities.