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Mizuho: Circle's Approval for National Trust Bank Unlikely to Change Fundamentals, USDC Growth and Competitive Pressures Remain

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On July 14, Japanese investment bank Mizuho stated that Circle's final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive development, but it is insufficient to address the core challenges the company currently faces. Mizuho maintained a "neutral" rating on Circle, suggesting that the market may be overly optimistic about this positive news. The firm noted that since March of this year, USDC's circulating market capitalization has decreased by approximately $7 billion to about $74 billion, reflecting a slowdown in growth momentum, which could weigh on Circle's transaction revenue and reserve income. Additionally, Mizuho highlighted that Open USD (OUSD), a stablecoin compliant with the GENIUS Act jointly launched by over 140 financial and technology companies including Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase, is intensifying market competition. With the continuous emergence of consortium-backed stablecoins, the stablecoin industry may face further commoditization, making it increasingly difficult for Circle to maintain its competitive edge.
CRCL0.25%
USDC-0.03%
GENIUS0.70%
MA0.07%
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