Last night’s CPI data was a real shocker within the crypto circle.

I was watching data from the Golden Ten (金十) platform. At exactly 20:30, the numbers popped up and I froze for a second—wow, everything came in below expectations. Overall CPI year-over-year was 3.5%, a big drop from the expected 3.8%; the month-over-month rate fell by 0.4%, while the market had only been pricing in a 0.1% decline. Most importantly, the core CPI annual rate came in at 2.6%—the expectation was 2.8%. Even core CPI on a monthly basis was 0%—the smallest increase since January 2021, meaning core inflation in June barely rose.

The comments section instantly blew up. Someone said, “This data is too strong,” and another replied, “Finally waiting for this day.”

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Why is this CPI data a major positive for virtual currencies?

The logic is simple: if inflation cools, the US Federal Reserve has no reason to rush into rate hikes.

Before the data was released, market expectations for a July rate hike had surged to over 40%, and many people thought the Fed might take action. Then this batch of data came out, and the probability of a rate hike crashed to 16.6%; traders quickly pulled back their bets. Rate swap market data showed the July rate-hike probability dropping to around 20%.

Rate-hike expectations cooling down → the US dollar weakening → money flowing back into risk assets—this chain holds together.

Bitcoin jumped straight up from around $62k, breaking $64,000, and peaked near $64,830—up more than 4% on the day. Ethereum was even stronger, up over 6%, hitting around $1,890. The entire crypto market moved higher together.

I was watching the candlestick chart: a huge bullish candle just shot up. Friends in the group were all shouting “bulls are back.” One guy who bought the bottom at 61.5k actually went into profit on the spot, nearly 5 percentage points, and the group sent out multiple红包.

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That said, we should also be honest—there are a few risks behind this rally.

First, this round of inflation cooling is mainly driven by falling energy prices. Energy prices in June fell 5.7%, and gasoline dropped 9.7%. But tensions in the Middle East have tightened again—Brent crude briefly surged to $87. If oil prices rebound, next month’s inflation data may not look as good.

Second, on the same night, Wösch (沃什) poured more cold water at a congressional hearing. He reiterated “zero tolerance” for high inflation and said CPI is just one data point—don’t expect an easy turn just because of one or two months of data. The gist is: don’t get too excited too soon.

Third, Bitcoin faces clear resistance around $65,000. Whether it can hold above that level depends on whether subsequent data can continue to confirm the easing of inflation.

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Overall, last night’s CPI data is genuinely a clear positive for virtual currencies. The data came in broadly below expectations, rate-hike expectations dropped sharply, and risk assets rebounded across the board—this logic chain played out very smoothly.

But remember: this is a “fast-rescue-style” surge. Whether it can turn into a trend still depends on future data and how the geopolitical situation evolves. Don’t get carried away just because it’s up, and don’t panic just because it’s down—staying calm is the most important thing.

⚠️ The above is personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. There are risks in the market; investing is with caution. Please make independent decisions based on your own circumstances. #美國核心CPI未達預期
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